The Mechanics of Covert Influence
Russia’s attempts to exert influence over the political and economic elites of the European Union have long ceased to be speculative—they are now an undeniable reality. What’s more, this influence has shown the capacity to shape strategic decisions within individual EU member states. Through a calculated blend of formal agreements, energy partnerships, personal networks, and informal arrangements, Moscow has methodically built a web of contacts that allow it to steer political and economic processes—sometimes subtly, sometimes overtly—in favor of its own interests.
This distinctly Russian strategy is expansive and has repeatedly surfaced in political scandals. In this analysis, we examine its manifestations in Austria, Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic—countries where Russian presence has been particularly pronounced.
🇦🇹 Austria: From Model Democracy to Kremlin Ally?
Long regarded as a paragon of Western European democracy and economic stability, Austria unexpectedly found itself under the Kremlin’s shadow. In 2016, the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) signed a cooperation agreement with Russia’s ruling party, United Russia. Ostensibly symbolic, the pact outlined standard diplomatic exchanges—delegation visits, experience sharing—but it also promoted declarations advocating a “multipolar world.”
Soon, the agreement evolved into a platform for regular contact and the emergence of a political faction within Austria that championed a pro-Russian agenda. FPÖ pushed for a “neutral course,” opposed EU sanctions against Russia following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, and advocated dialogue with Moscow on terms favorable to the Kremlin.
The apex of this alignment came with the 2019 “Ibiza affair.” A leaked video showed FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache offering access to public contracts to a woman posing as the niece of a Russian oligarch, in exchange for political and financial backing. The scandal collapsed the ÖVP–FPÖ coalition government and exposed the levers of Russian interest: strategic sectors of the economy and access to resources via “friendly” politicians. These resources extended beyond raw materials or finances—they included media control, public procurement, and participation in energy and infrastructure projects.
🇩🇪 Germany: The Revolving Door of Influence
Germany’s case centers on former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who transitioned from politics to key roles in Nord Stream and Rosneft. His move exemplifies the “revolving door” phenomenon, where former leaders leverage their networks and stature to advance the interests of corporate—and in this case, foreign—entities.
Through Schröder, Moscow entrenched itself in Germany’s energy policy. The Nord Stream pipeline became more than an economic venture—it was a strategic instrument of Russian soft power. Energy dependence fostered loyal factions within the German establishment, which, despite geopolitical tensions, continued to view Russia as a “reliable partner.”
🇭🇺 Hungary: Nuclear Dependency and Strategic Bonding
Hungary’s entanglement with Russia is marked by institutional resilience and long-term energy dependency. At the heart of this relationship lies the Paks II nuclear power plant project, financed by a Russian loan and executed by Rosatom. This is not merely a commercial contract—it’s a strategic triad of politics, business, and energy that binds Budapest to Moscow.
Hungary receives not just infrastructure but a financial anchor that limits future governments’ freedom in foreign policy. Energy thus becomes a tool for cultivating a stable pro-Russian orientation among Hungarian elites, including Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s inner circle. This is reflected in Hungary’s frequent declarations of “special positions” in the European Parliament, particularly on issues affecting Russian interests, such as sanctions.
🇨🇿 Czech Republic: Soft Power and Trusted Intermediaries
In the Czech Republic, Russian influence coalesced around President Miloš Zeman (2013–2023), who openly opposed EU sanctions against Russia, calling them “senseless,” and consistently advocated for “pragmatic dialogue” with Moscow. Zeman’s sympathies were no secret, and his visits to Russia included meetings not only with officials but also with Kremlin-linked business figures.
A key figure in this dynamic was Martin Nejedlý, Zeman’s foreign policy advisor. Formerly with Lukoil Aviation Czech, Nejedlý retained influence and access to the president even after the company’s bankruptcy. Media reports frequently cited his trips to Moscow and meetings with Russian officials—often without the Czech Foreign Ministry’s involvement.
Nejedlý functioned as an informal conduit, granting Moscow access to the highest levels of Czech politics. This wasn’t classic corruption with direct financial flows—it was about cultivating a durable network of trusted contacts capable of shaping presidential rhetoric and policy. Notably, Zeman opposed sanctions following Crimea’s annexation in 2014 and dismissed Czech intelligence findings in 2021 linking Russian military intelligence to the 2014 Vrbětice ammunition depot explosions.
🎯 A Unified Strategy with Local Variations
Russia’s influence strategy is multifaceted but unified in purpose. In Austria, the focus was on institutionalizing cooperation through party agreements. In Germany and Hungary, it revolved around energy and long-term economic-political projects. In the Czech Republic, it relied on soft influence via trusted advisors and elite circles. The Ibiza affair revealed how intermediaries sought informal routes to strategic resources.
Across all cases, Moscow’s goal remains consistent: to embed itself within the EU’s internal processes by using elites as conduits for its interests. And in pursuit of that goal, all tools are fair game—from formal treaties to backroom promises and energy dependency.
Russian influence over European elites is not confined to headline-grabbing scandals. It is a complex strategy combining political agreements, energy ventures, personal ties, and hybrid lobbying practices. The Kremlin’s aim is to cultivate interest groups within the EU that advocate for easing sanctions, maintaining economic ties, and adopting a more “balanced” foreign policy toward Moscow.
As Europe seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian energy and bolster its political autonomy, understanding these mechanisms is critical. Without such awareness, the risk of elite capture remains—and with it, the vulnerability of European democracies to external manipulation.