More than half of EU citizens believe that the risk of open war with Russia is high in the coming years, according to the results of a recent survey published by the French magazine Le Grand Continent. Conducted against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, this study highlights Europeans’ growing concern for the continent’s security.
The survey, conducted by French company Cluster17 from November 22 to 28, covered nearly 10,000 respondents from nine countries: France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium, and the Netherlands. According to the data, 51% of respondents assess the likelihood of war between the EU and Russia as “high” or “very high.” Another 18% chose the “very high” category, which together reinforces the sense of an impending threat.
However, Europeans are far from unanimous in their opinion: 46% consider the risk to be low or completely unrealistic. A significant proportion of respondents (69%) expressed confidence that their countries would not be able to defend themselves effectively in the event of armed conflict. Only 26% believe in the defensive capabilities of their national armies. The French are the least pessimistic, with 44% believing their country can defend itself, largely thanks to its nuclear arsenal.
Countries geographically closer to Russia show the greatest concern: in Poland, 77% of respondents see a high risk, in Germany — 51%, and in France — 54%. At the same time, this figure is lower in Italy and Portugal, at 34% and 39% respectively. Belgians, Italians, and Portuguese are particularly skeptical about their armed forces: 87%, 85%, and 85% respectively do not believe in their ability to defend themselves independently.
The survey also revealed that terrorism remains the main perceived threat in Europe, ahead of fears about Russia. At the same time, 81% of Europeans do not expect war with China in the coming years.
The survey results come amid escalating tensions in Europe. The conflict in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, has been going on for more than three and a half years, and fears of its spread to other countries are growing. Recently, French Army Chief of Staff Fabien Mandon warned that Russia is preparing for a new confrontation by 2030. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on December 2: “If Europe wants war, we are ready right now.”
These events are heightening concern across Europe, especially against the backdrop of uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The survey showed that almost half of Europeans (49%) consider Trump an “enemy of Europe” — a 4% increase compared to September. At the same time, three-quarters of respondents (74%) are in favor of remaining in the EU, and 63% see Brexit as a failure for the UK.
The survey highlights the need to strengthen European defense. Most respondents are in favor of a more balanced foreign policy, avoiding excessive dependence on Washington. Security issues, including support for Ukraine and NATO reform, are becoming a priority for EU leaders.
This snapshot of public opinion could influence upcoming summits and budgets: countries such as Poland and Germany are already increasing their military spending. In an era of global challenges, Europeans are making it clear that the fear of war is real and that it is time to act to prevent it from becoming a prophecy.