According to the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) published on December 11, Russia’s revenues from exports of crude oil and petroleum products in November 2025 fell to their lowest level since February 2022, when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
Export revenues amounted to $10.97 billion, which is $3.59 billion less than in November 2024. The decline was due to a combination of factors: a decrease in export volumes by approximately 400–420 thousand barrels per day (to 6.9 million barrels per day) and a sharp drop in prices for Russian oil.
The key export grade Urals fell by $8.2 per barrel to $43.52, one of the lowest prices in recent years. A particularly significant decline was observed in maritime exports via the Black Sea: volumes fell by 42% to 910,000 barrels per day. The IEA directly links this to recent Ukrainian attacks on ships of the so-called “shadow fleet” and port infrastructure.
Western sanctions, including measures against major producers Rosneft and Lukoil, are putting additional pressure on the Russian oil sector. These restrictions, introduced at the end of October, have led to oil accumulating on tankers and caution among buyers in Asia. Oil production in Russia fell to 9.03 million barrels per day in November, approximately 500,000 barrels below the OPEC+ quota.
Experts emphasize that oil and gas revenues traditionally make up a significant portion of Russia’s federal budget (about 25–30%). Their sharp decline limits Moscow’s ability to finance military spending and support the economy amid the ongoing conflict. In 2025, total oil and gas revenues to the budget have already fallen by 20–22% compared to the previous year, and the trend towards further decline continues.
IEA analysts note that despite Russia’s adaptation to sanctions through its “shadow fleet” and the redirection of supplies to Asia, tighter restrictions and external factors (including global oil overproduction) continue to undermine export flows. The situation could worsen in the coming months if buyers in China, India, and Turkey continue to reduce purchases due to the risk of secondary sanctions.