The European Union will complete the process of completely abandoning imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by early 2027, which will lead to the dominance of American supplies in the European market. According to the sanctions adopted and the REPowerEU plan, the ban on long-term contracts with Russia will come into force on 1 January 2027, while short-term supplies will be banned earlier, from April 2026.
In 2025, Europe will already be importing record volumes of LNG, with the United States accounting for about 60% of this. According to forecasts by analysts at Rabobank and Energy Aspects, the share of American LNG will grow to 70% between 2026 and 2029. This has been made possible by the rapid growth of export capacity in the US: by the end of 2027, American projects will add more than 50 million tons per year to current volumes, strengthening the US’s position as the world’s leading LNG exporter.
Russia currently supplies Europe with around 21 million tons of LNG annually, but after the ban comes into force, these volumes will be completely replaced. Experts note that global growth in gas liquefaction capacity by 161 million tons per year by 2027 (including projects in the USА, Qatar, Canada and Nigeria) will allow Europe to avoid price shocks. ‘There is enough new capacity to compensate for the Russian shortfall, especially if Russian LNG is redirected to other markets, such as China,’ said Rabobank energy strategist Florence Schmidt.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that America is ready to completely replace Russian gas supplies to Europe, which will help strengthen the energy security of its allies. At the same time, European leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, emphasise the strategic importance of diversifying sources to reduce dependence on Russia.
Russia denies that its energy resources are being used as a weapon and accuses the West of politicising the market. However, experts predict that by 2027, the European LNG market will be almost completely free of Russian supplies, with the United States playing a dominant role and Qatar making significant contributions.