Europe could face a serious fuel and energy shortage as early as April–May if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This was warned by Shell’s CEO and high-ranking German officials amid a sharp rise in oil and gas prices.
Shell CEO Wael Sawan stated at an oil conference in Texas that the shortage wave, which began in South Asia, is gradually spreading through Southeast and Northeast Asia and will hit Europe hardest in April. “Without resuming supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, Europe will face a shortage of fossil fuels in the coming weeks,” he emphasized.
Her words were confirmed by Germany’s Economy Minister Katherina Reiche. In her assessment, if the current situation persists, an energy scarcity could emerge as early as late April or May.
Since the conflict began, gas prices in Europe have risen by more than 70%, and oil prices by about 50–60%. This has led to additional EU import costs for fossil fuels of around €13–14 billion in just the first weeks of the crisis. Diesel fuel and aviation kerosene—products Europe traditionally imports from the Persian Gulf region—have become especially expensive.
Shell and other experts do not rule out the introduction of fuel rationing measures, similar to those used during the 2022 energy crisis. Some countries are already imposing restrictions: Slovenia has begun rationing fuel, while Austria and Spain are capping seller margins and reducing taxes.
The European Commission urges member states to limit the scale of state subsidies and avoid repeating the 2022 mistakes, when massive support caused a sharp increase in budget deficits. Brussels recommends focusing on demand reduction measures, filling storage facilities, and accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources to avoid budget collapse and a new wave of inflation.
There is no direct physical shortage of oil and gas in the EU yet—stocks will last several months. However, experts warn: the last tankers with kerosene from the crisis zone will arrive in Europe around April 10, after which the situation with diesel and aviation fuel could sharply worsen.