Less than a week before the parliamentary elections on April 12, the opposition party Tisza, led by Péter Magyar, has a real chance of securing a constitutional majority (two-thirds of seats) in the Hungarian parliament. Such an outcome could radically reshape the country’s political landscape after 16 years of dominance by Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party.
According to a meta-analysis of the latest five polls by the Median agency, Tisza could win between 138 and 143 seats out of 199 in the National Assembly. A constitutional majority requires 133 seats—this would enable independent changes to the Basic Law and key legislation, including those needed to unlock blocked EU funds.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party is projected to secure only 49–55 seats under the same estimates. The right-conservative Mi Hazánk party could also enter parliament with about 5–6 seats. Other forces, including left-wing and liberal parties, risk being shut out.
“If current trends hold, we’ll see not just a change of power, but a fundamental shift: from a one-party dominant system to a potential two-party parliament with absolute opposition control,” Median analysts note.
The April 12 elections promise to be the most tense in years. High turnout (estimated at 80–89% among “core” voters) could play a decisive role. However, experts warn that the final result will depend not only on vote percentages but also on Hungary’s electoral system features, including single-mandate districts and diaspora votes, which traditionally support Orbán.
If Median’s forecasts come true, Hungary could for the first time in a long while get a parliament capable of fully reconsidering the legacy of Orbán’s “illiberal democracy.”