According to exit poll data, the “Progressive Bulgaria” coalition led by former President Rumen Radev won a convincing victory in Bulgaria’s early parliamentary elections held on April 19, 2026.
Various exit polls (Alpha Research, Trend, Market Links) show the coalition receiving between 37.5% and 39.2% of the vote, with some updated figures reaching up to 44%. This gives it a significant lead over its main rivals: the center-right GERB–SDS coalition (around 15–16%) and the pro-European alliance “We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria” (13–14%).
Despite its commanding lead, “Progressive Bulgaria” falls short by approximately 10–12 seats of an absolute majority (121 seats) in the 240-seat National Assembly. Radev will therefore need to form a coalition or minority government.
Radev’s victory may finally break Bulgaria’s prolonged political crisis — these are already the eighth early elections in the past five years. Voters are clearly exhausted by unstable coalitions and weak governments. If Radev manages to reach an agreement with reformist forces, the country could gain a relatively stable government capable of carrying out long-overdue reforms.
Rumen Radev has repeatedly criticized Western sanctions against Russia and advocated for restoring pragmatic dialogue with Moscow, particularly in the energy sector. His rise to actual power (as the de facto leader of the executive branch) may lead to a noticeable softening of Bulgaria’s pro-European and pro-Ukrainian stance. Brussels and Washington are watching this with unease: friction may arise over arms supplies to Ukraine, energy supply diversification, and participation in EU-wide sanctions.
Radev’s main campaign promises centered on a tough fight against corruption, judicial reform, and overcoming oligarchic influence. He has already signaled readiness to cooperate with reformers on these issues, but has categorically ruled out alliances with Boyko Borisov’s GERB and Delyan Peevski’s DPS, which he labels “oligarchic structures.” If a coalition is formed, Bulgaria could accelerate the reforms needed for full eurozone accession (planned for January 1, 2026, but now in question).
Should coalition talks fail, Bulgaria risks ending up with a minority government or once again entering a cycle of early elections. Furthermore, a more pro-Russian rhetorical direction could slow the country’s European integration and deter foreign investors, who are already scarce.
Official election results are expected within the coming days once all ballots are fully processed. What is already clear is that Bulgarian voters have sent a strong signal for change — the only question is whether Rumen Radev and his team can deliver on that demand without jeopardizing the country’s European future.