Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has assessed the threat from Iran as having grown significantly. According to the domestic intelligence service, Tehran may substantially intensify its intelligence and sabotage operations against European targets once the active military phase of the conflict with Israel and the United States begins to wind down.
According to BfV, Iran and its affiliated proxy groups view European countries as a potential arena for retaliatory actions. Government institutions and military facilities, as well as Jewish and Israeli organizations and members of the Iranian opposition abroad, are all within the intelligence services’ focus.
“Once the pressure on the Iranian regime in the region eases, we expect a shift of resources toward the so-called ‘soft underbelly’ of the West — Europe,” the agency’s assessment states.
In recent years, BfV has already recorded a rise in Iranian activity in Germany and other EU countries: attempted kidnappings and assassinations of dissidents, espionage, cyberattacks, and surveillance of Jewish institutions. In 2024–2025 alone, German authorities foiled several potentially serious incidents linked to Iranian agents and their accomplices.
Experts attribute the possible escalation to Iran’s desire to demonstrate its ability to strike asymmetrically while avoiding direct military confrontation with Israel and the United States. Europe is perceived as a convenient and relatively safe venue for such operations.
BfV emphasized that Germany and its European partners are reinforcing protective measures for critical infrastructure and potential targets. Citizens and organizations that may be of interest to Iranian intelligence services have been advised to exercise heightened vigilance.