Countries of the European Union risk facing massive job losses in the coming years. The main reasons are high energy prices, accelerated industrial restructuring, and the pressure of the “green transition” on traditional economic sectors. This is stated in a new report by the European Commission.
According to the document, the most vulnerable sectors will be energy-intensive industries: metallurgy, chemicals, fertilizer production, glass, and cement. These industries account for a significant share of industrial employment in Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, and Eastern European countries.
“We are witnessing a combination of several structural shocks at once,” said the European Commissioner for Employment and Social Rights. “Energy prices after 2022 have not returned to pre-crisis levels, while strict climate targets require the rapid closure or deep modernization of entire industries. Without coordinated measures, we could lose between 300,000 and 800,000 jobs by 2030 in industry alone.”
The greatest risks have been identified in regions with a high concentration of heavy industry: North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany), Silesia (Poland), northern Italy, eastern France, and some regions of Spain. In these areas, the unemployment rate could rise by 2–4 percentage points within the next three to five years.
The European Commission acknowledges that existing retraining programs and the Just Transition Fund are currently insufficient to offset the scale of the problem. The report recommends accelerating the development of renewable energy, introducing temporary support measures for energy-intensive industries, and significantly expanding professional retraining programs.
At the same time, EU officials emphasize that the “green transition” will create more jobs than it destroys in the long term. However, they admit that the transitional period will be extremely painful for hundreds of thousands of European families.