Bloomberg Economics’ calculations show that international sanctions have effectively cut off the Kremlin’s access to external financing, and it is increasingly relying on costly domestic borrowing.
Defence spending this year could exceed the initial budget by 4–5 trillion roubles (approximately 40 per cent), whilst in the first five months of the year the budget deficit reached 6 trillion roubles — around 2.6 per cent of GDP, which is almost 60 per cent higher than the annual target.
The public debt ceiling for 2026 has already been reached. Russia plans to spend nearly 4 trillion roubles on debt servicing this year — the fifth-largest item in the budget.
According to the publication’s estimates, over the course of the decade, the country will pay out at least 15 per cent of GDP in interest.