Latvian intelligence services have reported indications that Russia may be preparing hybrid provocations against the Baltic states or Poland.
These actions could include the use of drones, missiles, or other hybrid measures aimed at pressuring NATO countries to reduce or halt their support for Ukraine.
According to the assessment, Russia is not currently capable of launching a conventional large-scale war against NATO, but it may attempt limited provocations to send a political signal.Latvian intelligence also highlighted the risk of miscalculation by Russian President Vladimir Putin, noting that the information he receives may be distorted to align with his expectations.
The Baltic states and Poland are full NATO members. Any Russian provocation against them would engage NATO’s collective defence commitments and could escalate into a broader confrontation.
This warning comes amid ongoing discussions among Western allies regarding the level of support for Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russia.