French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her hard-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon have strengthened their positions in opinion polls ahead of next year’s presidential election. This is shown by a fresh poll by Toluna Harris Interactive conducted for M6 and RTL between 3 and 5 November 2026.
According to the survey, in all tested first-round scenarios (scheduled for 18 April 2027) Le Pen receives 34–36% of the vote, while Mélenchon gets 18–19%. This represents a rise of 1–2 points compared with the previous wave by the same institute at the end of October. In every hypothesis the second round comes down to a contest between these two candidates: the National Rally (RN) candidate emerges as the clear leader by a wide margin, while the leader of La France Insoumise (LFI) firmly holds second place, widening the gap with those behind him.
In the second round Le Pen comfortably defeats any opponent. She looks strongest against Mélenchon — 68% to 32%. Against Édouard Philippe (former prime minister, centrist) the result is 58%, and against Raphaël Glucksmann around 60%. Centrists and moderate forces are meanwhile losing ground: Philippe and Glucksmann are declining in the ratings, and the political centre linked to outgoing President Emmanuel Macron remains weakened.
The poll reflects the intensification of political polarisation in France. Macron’s second and final five-year term is ending against a backdrop of the president’s unpopularity, the weakness of centrist forces and economic difficulties, creating space for hardline parties on both the right and the left. Mélenchon has already run three times (2012, 2017, 2022) but has never reached the second round; Le Pen also took part in those elections and lost to Macron in the second round in 2017 and 2022. She is now the official RN candidate.
The data confirm the trend of recent months: Le Pen consistently leads by a wide margin, while Mélenchon is consolidating his position as the main contender to reach the second round. With around five months still to go before the election, the field of candidates may still change.
