Global shipping is at risk of a complete halt due to a severe shortage of marine fuel oil caused by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Heavy fuel oil (HSFO) stocks at key bunkering ports—Singapore and Fujairah—have fallen to critical lows. Bunker fuel prices have risen by 30–35% in a week, reaching record highs, surpassing the peaks of 2008 and 2022.
The main reasons include:
the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
the halt in fuel oil exports from the Persian Gulf
a sharp rise in insurance premiums and the refusal of ships to transit the strait.
Leading bunkering hubs are already limiting bunkering, and some ports are completely out of certain fuel types (VLSFO, LSMGO). Transfers from Europe and the US cover only a small portion of the demand.
Experts warn that if the shortage persists for two to four weeks, a significant portion of the global fleet will be unable to sail. This will lead to:
massive cargo delays
a sharp increase in freight rates
the introduction of emergency fuel surcharges
the possible shutdown of some container and tanker lines.
“Fuel oil has become physically unavailable even with high oil prices. This is an unprecedented situation that could paralyze maritime shipping,” notes Bloomberg analyst Javier Blas.
Global trade is facing a new, powerful blow amid existing problems with key sea routes. There are currently no signs of an imminent recovery in supplies from the region.