In March 2026, Germany will hold two important stages in regional politics: elections to the state parliaments of Baden-Württemberg (March 8) and Rhineland-Palatinate (March 22). The results of the votes will not only renew the composition of the state parliaments but will also serve as an indicator of a wide range of trends: from the rise of right-wing populism to significant changes in the party composition of the state parliaments and the Bundestag.
All major German parties are represented in the elections. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is a traditional center-right party advocating for economic stability, moderate conservatism, improved domestic security, and support for small businesses. The CDU’s position in the regions remains strong, but it is lagging behind the growth of emerging political forces.
The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is a center-left party that actively focuses on social justice, worker support, and a sustainable social sector. However, amid declining popularity in recent years, it has been searching for new meaning.
The Greens (Grüne) are an environmentalist party with climate change rhetoric, advocating for sustainable development and social policy. In Baden-Württemberg, the party is strong, but polls conducted in late 2025 showed a weakening of the party’s support in favor of the CDU and AfD.
Controversial but gaining popularity in Germany, the right-wing populist, national-conservative Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is a force with harsh anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic rhetoric and a nationalist bent. The party actively advocates strict immigration restrictions, greater powers for local authorities to regulate immigration flows, and opposition to existing environmental programs. In Rhineland-Palatinate, the AfD proposes, among other things, converting Hahn Airport into a deportation center, repealing the TV agreement, and phasing out wind power and returning to nuclear power.
In both states, parties are building programs around economic growth, internal security, migration, energy policy, and the future of the EU. However, it is the AfD that is radicalizing the discourse, proposing openly anti-liberal measures and clearly nationalist messages.
Following the results of the previous 2021 elections, the political landscape in Baden-Württemberg appeared relatively stable. The Greens received 32.6%, becoming the leading force, while the CDU fell to second place with 24.1%. The AfD was barely distinguishable at that time, with 9.7%.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, following the results of the previous 2021 elections, the SPD dominated (35.7%), the CDU achieved 27.7%, and the Greens became the third force with 9.3%. The AfD came in fourth with 8.3%.
However, by the spring of 2026, the picture had changed. Regional polls, known as “Sonntagsfragen” (Sunday popularity polls), and analytical reports conducted in late January 2026 recorded a significant increase in support for the AfD, which, across Germany as a whole, outpaced many traditional parties and, in some estimates, was close to the level of the CDU. Immediately before the March state elections in Baden-Württemberg (March 8, 2026), average support figures showed approximately 29% for the CDU, 21-23% for the Greens, around 20% for the AfD, and around 9% for the SPD.
In Rhineland-Palatinate (March 22, 2026), current polling data shows a slightly different balance. Here, the CDU holds around 29% of support, the SPD around 26%, and the AfD around 18%, which is higher than its previous results and indicates a clear growth of its electoral base. They are followed by the Greens with around 10%.
The AfD’s growing popularity indicates that traditional centrist parties are losing some of their electoral base, which could seriously impact both regional and federal elections. Numerous polls indicate that the AfD is becoming a leading force among German voters, particularly those dissatisfied with the status quo. Some studies indicate that 53% of Germans surveyed believe the AfD could win the presidency in one of the federal states after the March elections.
AfD support isn’t limited to protest voting. The party is organizing working groups, increasing budgets to prepare for its run for office, and is even considering running for office at the regional level, demonstrating the ambitiousness of its strategy.
What results can we expect from the elections, which are less than a month away? Based on the latest data, the AfD in Baden-Württemberg is consistently gaining around 20% in the ratings, making it the third real force after the CDU and the Greens, but already a significant factor in coalition negotiations. The AfD’s leading candidate is Markus Frohnmaier, and the party’s campaign is focused on migration, energy policy, and budget redistribution. If the AfD can significantly improve its 2021 results, it will complicate the formation of a stable coalition for the CDU or the Greens, which previously shared power.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, the AfD, led by Jan Bollinger, is showing around 18% support, already above the 5% threshold. Despite the historically strong position of the SPD as one of the oldest and most important parties in the Rhineland-Palatinate region, the CDU is conducting a very active and aggressive election campaign, specifically criticizing potential “rot-rot-grün” coalitions (SPD-Die Linke-Grüne coalitions) that could form if the conservatives perform poorly at both the local and federal levels. The Greens, meanwhile, have declared their readiness not only to abandon cooperation with the AfD but also to seek its legal ban, issuing harsh accusations that AfD policies allegedly “sow fear” and pose a threat to democracy.
This pressure reflects not only intra-party infighting but also growing concerns about the strengthening of right-wing populist forces in society.
The AfD’s rise in Germany’s western states, less expected than its success in the former East German states, reflects profound sociopolitical changes in the country. National polls (Ipsos) indicate that the AfD can maintain popularity ratings of approximately 25-26%, outpacing even the established parties. This is shifting the center of gravity of German party politics and calling into question previous models of coalition formation. The traditional “firewall” (the traditional parties’ refusal to negotiate with openly right-wing parties) is under pressure from the AfD’s real electoral weight and may be reconsidered if the party continues to gain popularity.
It is clear that the elections on March 8 and 22, 2026, in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate will serve both as the basis for changes in the state parliaments and as a test of the resilience of the German political order. These elections will likely open a new chapter in the history of German political dynamics, setting the tone for debates on migration, identity, European integration, and the place of right-wing and center-wing forces in Europe’s post-traditional political landscape.