According to the annual military intelligence review published on 22 January 2026 by the Finnish Defence Forces Headquarters, Moscow remains interested in damaging underwater communications in the Baltic Sea and is likely to pursue these ambitions in the near future.
‘Russia is likely to continue its attempts to damage the underwater infrastructure of the Baltic Sea,’ the document states.
The Baltic Sea region remains on high alert after a series of incidents since 2022, when, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, damage to power cables, telecommunications lines and gas pipelines was repeatedly reported. The latest high-profile incident occurred on New Year’s Eve (31 December 2025), when Finnish authorities detained the cargo ship Fitburg, which was sailing from St. Petersburg to Haifa, Israel. The ship is suspected of damaging an underwater telecommunications cable in the Gulf of Finland — the ship’s anchor dragged along the bottom and hit the communication line between Helsinki and Tallinn. After the investigation, the ship was released, but one crew member remained in custody.
In an interview, Major General Pekka Turunen, head of Finnish intelligence, noted that Russia has the technical capabilities to destroy underwater infrastructure if it decides to do so. At the same time, he stressed that there is currently no ‘smoking gun’ that would unequivocally point to the involvement of Russia or any other state in the recent incidents.
A series of similar incidents — including damage to the Estlink, C-Lion1, Balticconnector and other cables in 2023–2025 — prompted NATO and EU countries to significantly strengthen the protection of critical underwater infrastructure. In particular, the alliance launched the Baltic Sentry programme to monitor and protect cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea.
The Kremlin traditionally denies any involvement in such incidents, calling them accidental or provocations by the West.
Experts note that such actions, even if carried out through a ‘shadow fleet’ or ships flying foreign flags, can damage Europe’s digital and energy connectivity while remaining below the threshold of open military conflict.