Czechia’s main opposition party, ANO, has widened its advantage over Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s ruling bloc less than three weeks before parliamentary elections.
A new survey by pollster STEM for CNN Prima News places ANO on 31.3% support, with the centre-right SPOLU (Together) coalition on 20.2%.
Voting will take place on Friday 3 and Saturday 4 October 2025 to elect all 200 members of the Chamber of Deputies. A majority requires 101 seats. The election dates were announced earlier this year; no party is currently projected to win outright.
The poll underlines a stable pattern seen through late summer: ANO holding a double-digit lead while several smaller parties cluster near or above the threshold for representation. STEM’s weekly modelling has shown only modest shifts in recent months, with party alliances—rather than large swings in vote share—driving most of the campaign dynamics.
SPOLU brings together Fiala’s Civic Democrats (ODS), TOP 09 and the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL). The grouping led the government formed after the 2021 election but has trailed ANO throughout 2025. In STEM’s latest model, the gap between the two stands at more than 10 points.
Given the proportional system and the number of parties polling in contention, coalition building after the vote appears likely. Under Czech electoral rules, single parties must clear 5% of the national vote to enter the lower house; two-party coalitions need 8%, and coalitions of three or more require 11%. These thresholds shape pre- and post-election bargaining and can leave significant shares of votes unrepresented if smaller lists fall short.
If ANO wins the most votes, it would be expected to open coalition talks. Parties frequently mentioned in that context include the Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD), the Stačilo! list, and the Motorists party. Whether such combinations would secure a workable parliamentary majority is uncertain, and outcomes will depend on how many groups cross the threshold and on their regional distributions.
Andrej Babiš, the former prime minister and ANO leader, has positioned the party on a platform of higher public spending, tax cuts and opposition to elements of the European Union’s green agenda. At the European level, ANO sits with the Patriots for Europe group, formed in 2024 by Hungary’s Fidesz and others; this alignment has been a line of attack for SPOLU, which argues that post-election cooperation with harder-line parties would complicate Czechia’s relations within the EU.
Government parties point to Czechia’s macroeconomic stabilisation and support for Ukraine as pillars of their record, while critics cite persistent cost-of-living pressures. Polling suggests voters are dividing along familiar lines: ANO drawing strength from older and non-metropolitan voters, Pirates and STAN from urban centres, and SPD and allied groups from voters disillusioned with both government and mainstream opposition. Exact distributions will become clearer as final campaign messages land and undecided voters make choices in the last fortnight.
Logistics may matter at the margins. This election is the first in which citizens abroad can vote by post under a 2024 legal change, although early reports indicate take-up is below initial expectations. The effect on the overall result is difficult to gauge in advance.
The composition of the next Chamber will determine not only the government but also policy direction on energy, fiscal settings and EU files. With seven or more groups in play, the arithmetic for building and maintaining a majority could be tight. Markets and EU partners will watch coalition talks closely if, as polling indicates, no list secures a majority on its own.
Turnout, late shifts among smaller parties and threshold effects are therefore critical. If several minor lists fall just short, the leading party could gain an outsized share of seats relative to its vote; if more cross the line, coalition options multiply but negotiations become more complex.