The Danish Intelligence and Security Service (DDIS) has published its annual report, “Threat Assessment 2025,” in which it notes a sharp increase in Russia’s aggressive actions in Europe and expresses serious doubts about the US’s ability and willingness to fulfill its obligations to its NATO allies in the coming years.
According to the document, Russia is “systematically building up its military capabilities near NATO borders,” including in the Kaliningrad region, the Arctic, and the Baltic Sea. Danish intelligence specifically notes:
an increase in the number of Russian military aircraft violating the airspace of the Baltic states and Denmark;
the deployment of new missile systems and submarines in the Baltic region;
the growth of hybrid threats: cyberattacks, disinformation, and attempts to influence political processes in European countries.
“Russia is prepared to use military force to achieve its political goals in Europe,” the report states explicitly.
A separate section of the document is devoted to the United States. For the first time, the DDIS openly expresses concern about the “decline in the predictability of American security policy.” The authors of the report point to a possible return to isolationism in Washington after the 2024 presidential election and emphasize that “in the event of a serious crisis in Europe, one cannot count with complete confidence on automatic and rapid intervention by the US.”
Commenting on the report, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said, “We must be prepared to defend ourselves and the Baltic Sea region for longer than previously assumed. Europe must significantly increase its own defense capabilities.”
The publication of the report has already prompted a response from NATO headquarters. Alliance Secretary General Mark Rutte called Denmark’s assessment a “serious signal” and confirmed that the issue of increasing defense spending and strengthening NATO’s European component will be one of the key topics at the 2026 summit.