Europe Should Re-listen to Its Great Ancestors
Europe should re-listen to its great ancestors. Thucydides, the Athenian general and historian who wrote almost 2,500 years ago, has a hard-won reputation as the father of political realism. And at a time of rising threats and uncertain alliances, that can be priceless in guiding the continent along a perilous path.
No battle is lost until it is fought, and Europe has many strengths. While it has blundered in its approach to the increasingly linked threats of Russia and China, it could still choose to reverse the situation through greater integration to enable large-scale force development.
Europe today finds itself caught in a strategic dilemma reminiscent of the Peloponnesian War of the fifth century BC. Led by Pericles, Athens’ opening strategy required continuing control of the sea and hiding safely behind its long walls until the Peloponnesians realized the futility of the war. The Peloponnesians, led by Sparta, were unable to breach Athens’ walls and focused on ravaging the land of Attica, hoping to induce a decisive battle.
If one believes Putin is a military threat bent on conquest, then Europe’s long walls are Ukraine. Ukraine favors what’s known as the Fabian approach — imposing the largest possible cost on Russia to render the war prohibitively expensive.
That’s rational. But the fear is that Putin has no interest in the rational and no real concern about the costs, however high. Not only is he willing to expend huge amounts of blood and treasure on his imperial quest, but he is also backed by China, the manufacturing hub and largest economy (by purchasing power parity) in the world. The price Ukraine can inflict is unlikely to be sufficient.
Europe, therefore, cannot simply wait for Russia to lose heart. It cannot, in other words, hide behind its long walls. It must create leverage through strength.
Thucydides showed in his History of the Peloponnesian War that defensive strategies fail without a credible offensive capability. Athens never built a coordinated offensive component. Instead, it squandered resources on diversionary misadventures like the Sicilian expedition while Sparta, backed by Persia — the greatest power of that era — built a navy and blockaded Athens into submission.
Europe today risks a similar fate if it relies solely on sanctions, defensive deployments, and fortification. And indeed, the recent wave of hostile drone incidents since the attack on Poland on September 9–10 demonstrates the risks. A panicked Europe is recognizing its walls are anyway crumbling.
Europe must therefore invest in the means to project land, air, and sea power beyond its borders. That requires a much greater degree of unity to weld together the continent’s many strengths and great wealth. It must have a single framework for arms procurement, joint exercises to generate a credible capability to threaten Russia’s oil revenues, and it must protect nations seeking to leave Russia’s orbit.
It also secures Europe’s broader security. Working with organizations like the Quad of the US, Australia, India, and Japan would counterbalance China, whose export-driven strategy and support for Russia undermine European security. A muscular, outward-facing Europe will be better placed to secure its own prosperity and security.