Pawel Shota, head of the Polish Intelligence Agency (AW), has stated that Russia may use the ‘little green men’ tactic to carry out provocations in the Baltic states. In his view, the aim of such actions is to test NATO’s reaction and the Alliance’s unity without escalating to open military conflict. The head of Polish foreign intelligence made these remarks in an interview with the newspaper Rzeczpospolita.
The term ‘little green men’ is traditionally used to refer to military personnel without identification marks who operate as part of hybrid operations. It was precisely this tactic that Russia employed in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea.
Shota emphasised that the main immediate military threat to Poland stems precisely from the Russian Federation. In his view, Moscow regards Poland and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, as well as Norway and Romania) as a serious obstacle to the realisation of its imperial ambitions in Europe.
“Moscow perceives Poland and the countries on NATO’s eastern flank as an obstacle to the realisation of its imperial goals,” the head of the AW stated explicitly.
Pawel Shota noted that Russia is actively utilising the full spectrum of hybrid tools: cyber-attacks, disinformation, migratory pressure, sabotage and intelligence activities. The Baltic states, which have significant Russian-speaking populations and share a border with Russia and Belarus, are considered particularly vulnerable to such provocations.
Experts point out that, in the event of a successful hybrid operation, Russia could attempt to divide NATO by calling into question the application of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty (collective defence). Any indecisive response from the Alliance could seriously undermine its credibility.
Pawel Shota’s statement reflects the official position of the Polish authorities, who traditionally regard Russia as the main long-term threat to the security of the country and the entire eastern flank.