According to estimates by the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in the first 5-10 years after exit, Poland’s GDP could decline by 4-7%, and real wages could fall by 8%.
Polish agriculture would be particularly hard hit: meat and dairy exports to EU countries could fall by approximately half due to the loss of duty-free access to the single market.
Experts emphasize that the loss of access to the single market (which accounts for over 75-80% of Polish exports), the cessation of EU funds, the introduction of tariff barriers, and a worsening investment climate would make the consequences of Polexit far more painful than Brexit for the UK.
Recent opinion polls show that support for leaving the EU hovers around 22-25%, while 65-70% of Poles favor remaining in the EU.