Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova have demonstrated that they are capable of fundamentally rethinking and strengthening their own energy security.
A decade ago, it seemed unthinkable that Russia’s Lukoil could lose its foothold on the Balkans and along the Black Sea.
Its assets dominated Bulgaria’s fuel market, supplied a meaningful share of Romania’s consumption and held a systemic presence in Moldova. But by the end of 2025, it had become clear that the company was rapidly losing everything it had built since the late 1990s.
A convergence of sanctions, political pressure, domestic decisions and broken logistics chains has triggered a structural collapse of Lukoil’s regional operations.
The turning point came in October 2025, when the U.S. Treasury announced a new sanctions package against Russian energy, effectively blocking the financing and servicing of Lukoil’s international assets. Almost simultaneously, the EU enacted its 19th sanctions package, which for the first time included key Lukoil subsidiaries such as Litasco SA – the company that for years handled the export and processing of Russian oil. Its inclusion left Lukoil’s European refineries unable to operate under normal conditions.
The fall of Lukoil’s core assets
Lukoil’s most important asset in Europe has long been the Lukoil Neftochim Burgas refinery in Bulgaria, one of the region’s largest complexes with a processing capacity of 9.5 million tonnes per year. It supplied up to 80% of Bulgaria’s fuel market. In 2024, its turnover reached €4.7 billion, and the Ministry of Finance valued the facility at €1.3 billion.
In Romania, the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in Ploiești – though smaller, remained a strategically relevant asset. With a capacity of 2.4 million tonnes and a 99.5% refining depth, it reported around €380 million in turnover in 2023 and a net profit of 62.8 million lei. Its estimated market value ranges from $1.8 to $2.5 billion.
Moldova’s Lukoil segment, worth $150-200 million, includes more than 100 petrol stations and a critical aviation fuel terminal near Chișinău Airport. Despite being smaller, it has significant strategic weight.
Regional governments respond
Once sanctions were announced, developments in the region unfolded like a political thriller. Bulgaria became the epicentre of confrontation. In November, the parliament adopted a law allowing the state to appoint a special administrator to the Burgas refinery if the owner fell under sanctions or violated safety requirements. Pro-Russian parties and parts of the opposition accused the government of attempting a “hidden nationalisation”, while the State Reserve warned that a shutdown would leave only 35 days of gasoline and 50 days of diesel. Ultimately the government secured deferral of sanction, the US exemption extending until 29 April 2026. Romania took a more restrained, technocratic path. Energy minister Bogdan Ivan stated that the state must gain control over Lukoil’s infrastructure “to ensure compliance with sanctions and the uninterrupted flow of supplies.” Parliament backed the government, and pro-Russian parties found themselves marginalised.
Moldova went furthest. The government of Dorin Recean issued an ultimatum demanding the transfer of assets or a shutdown once sanctions entered into force. The pro-Russian Șor party attempted to exploit the situation for political gain but failed.
Brussels stands firm
The European Commission’s stance aligns with REPowerEU, which calls for a full phase-out of Russian energy by 2027. Member states are therefore entitled, and in some cases required, to impose temporary state management over critical energy infrastructure.
The economic risks, however, are real. The Centre for the Study of Democracy in Sofia warned that a Burgas shutdown could trigger inflation of up to 6%. Bulgaria’s reserves – 200,000 tonnes of diesel and 120,000 tonnes of gasoline, forced the government to urgently activate alternative import routes. Romania, with a stronger reserve of 400,000 tonnes, was able to offer support to Moldova.
But more significant than the numbers are the strategic implications.
For the first time in decades, the countries of Southeastern Europe have acted simultaneously and in coordination to curb Russian influence over their energy systems. Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova have demonstrated that they are capable of decisive action – not merely in response to Western sanctions, but also in fundamentally rethinking and strengthening their own energy security.
Lukoil’s withdrawal from the region is not just a consequence of sanctions. It is a structural rupture that is changing the balance of power in the Black Sea and Balkan regions.