Tensions flared between Budapest and Zagreb after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán claimed that Croatia’s Adriatic pipeline lacked the capacity to replace Russian oil imports to Hungary and Slovakia. Speaking in Washington on November 7 during his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, Orbán asserted that Croatia was “unable to supply the necessary volume of crude oil” to refineries owned by Hungary’s MOL Group.
Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković sharply rejected those statements, calling them “completely false.” He accused both Orbán and MOL management of spreading disinformation about JANAF — the Croatian company operating the Adriatic pipeline — and emphasized that the system is fully capable of delivering the required volumes to refineries in Százhalombatta (Hungary) and Bratislava (Slovakia). Plenković also expressed surprise that Washington appeared to “half-endorse” Orbán’s narrative by granting Hungary a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil.
Croatia says capacity more than sufficient
Plenković reiterated that the JANAF system can transport up to 15 million tonnes of crude oil annually, while the combined capacity of the Hungarian and Slovak refineries is 14.3 million tonnes — well within the pipeline’s limits. Just days before Orbán’s U.S. visit, MOL Nyrt. had itself admitted that it could cover up to 80% of its supply needs through Croatia’s pipeline network if deliveries from Russia’s Druzhba system were cut off.
MOL also confirmed ongoing modernization of its refineries to process non-Russian Brent crude, as their Soviet-era configuration was designed for heavier Urals oil. Experts note that Budapest’s insistence on maintaining Russian imports is less about technical limitations and more about opaque financial arrangements with Moscow, involving hidden kickbacks and off-the-books transactions that benefit Orbán’s political circle and his ruling Fidesz party.
Political stakes and regional risks
Investigative journalists in Hungary have long reported that parts of the profits from oil trade with Russia are funneled into Fidesz’s domestic network and campaign financing. With parliamentary elections looming in April 2026, Orbán faces growing pressure to secure resources to sustain his political dominance. Maintaining energy contracts with the Kremlin — even for a single year — is thus not only an economic priority but a political survival strategy.
However, this dispute with Croatia over energy supply risks undermining regional security and European unity. Should relations between Budapest and Zagreb deteriorate, oil deliveries through the Adriatic pipeline could face disruptions, threatening energy stability across Central Europe.
A rift that benefits Moscow
Analysts warn that any escalation between Hungary and Croatia could weaken cohesion within both the EU and NATO. By exploiting divisions between member states, the Kremlin could further undermine Western solidarity on sanctions and Ukraine. Hungary’s continued dependence on Russian hydrocarbons keeps it strategically vulnerable — and politically aligned with Moscow’s interests.
Croatia, by contrast, is promoting diversification in line with EU policy, positioning itself as a regional hub for alternative energy supplies. Yet as Orbán doubles down on Russian ties, Budapest risks isolation within the bloc — and a growing perception of acting as Moscow’s proxy inside Europe.