Amid escalating tensions on NATO’s eastern flank, the alliance is stepping up its assessment of the risks of potential Russian aggression against the Baltic states. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at a press conference ahead of a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels that any attempt by Russia to attack Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania would be met with a “devastating” response. This statement underscores the alliance’s growing concern about the possibility of a “hybrid” or direct attack in the next 3-5 years, especially against the backdrop of the Russian armed forces’ recovery after the war in Ukraine.
The Baltic region has long been considered the most vulnerable part of NATO’s eastern flank. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—former Soviet republics bordering Russia and the Kaliningrad enclave—rely on collective defense under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. However, geography works against them: the Suwalki Corridor, a narrow strip of land between Poland and Lithuania, remains the only land route connecting them to the rest of Europe, and its capture by Russia could isolate the Baltic states.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the threats have intensified. Intelligence agencies from several NATO countries, including Germany and Finland, warn that Moscow is preparing for asymmetric attacks: from cyberattacks and sabotage to “gray zone” operations, such as provocations among the Russian-speaking population in Narva (Estonia) or on the island of Hiiumaa. In October 2025, the US Center for New Generations of Warfare (CNWG) simulated a scenario of an attack on Latvia and Lithuania in 2027, in which Russian forces from Kaliningrad and Belarus could break through defenses in 10 days before NATO reinforcements arrive.
Experts note that the war in Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of the Russian army, but has also given Moscow experience and time to rearm. According to NATO estimates, Russia produces more ammunition than the entire alliance and may be ready for a new aggression by 2029. At the same time, NATO Commander Arlo Abrahamson stressed that “malicious actors, including Russia, know that the alliance is ready to respond quickly to threats from sea or land.”
In recent weeks, NATO has conducted a series of exercises and simulations focusing on the “northeastern quadrant” — from Finland to Poland. According to reports by the RAND Corporation and CSIS, the alliance’s current force grouping in the Baltic states (enhanced forward presence, eFP) is insufficient to repel a lightning attack: Russian troops could reach Tallinn and Riga in 60 hours.
NATO’s assessments are not just a warning, but a call to action. “The risk of war by 2029 is real, but 3.5% for defense by 2035 is too slow,” warns expert Anna Wislander. Support for Ukraine is seen as key: its resilience deters Russia from new adventures.
At the same time, Moscow rejects the accusations: “Claims of an attack on Europe are lies,” Putin said. But intelligence and models suggest otherwise. The Baltic region is becoming a battleground for European security: from “little green men” to full-scale war. NATO is preparing, but time is running out — the alliance must act “faster and harder” to keep the skies over Riga and Tallinn peaceful.