On October 12, 2026, at the Warsaw Security Forum, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, presented his “Theory of Victory” — a concept for how the alliance would respond to an attack on one of its member states.
The plan is built on three stages: block the initial strike with ground forces, blunt the advance using drones, robots, and AI, and, if necessary, break the enemy’s command and support system with strikes on logistics, communications, and command posts. According to media reports, potential targets could include sites in the Kaliningrad region, the area around St. Petersburg, and Belarus.
“If someone is foolish enough to attack us, we will fight and ensure any attack proves utterly futile,” Grynkewich said. At the same time, he stressed NATO’s defensive nature and noted that a major conflict is neither imminent nor inevitable.
The concept, agreed by all 32 members of the alliance, draws on the experience of Ukraine and is intended to strengthen deterrence amid hybrid threats and the war in Ukraine.
