Debate in Britain over the country’s future relationship with the European Union has intensified again after a new Messina Group poll. According to the survey, 49% of respondents would support the country rejoining the EU, while 28.5% were opposed.
The poll was conducted by The Messina Group (TMG) from 12 to 24 September. It surveyed 11,461 people, with the sample weighted by the result of the 2016 referendum. Respondents were offered seven options for the UK’s relationship with the EU. Rejoining the bloc was the most popular. In second place was keeping the current model while removing as many trade barriers as possible: 48.2% were in favour and 20.9% against. A customs union was backed by 47.1%, with 20.7% opposed. Associate membership drew 45.5% support, and joining the single market 45.1%. Moving further away from the EU was the least popular option: 27.9% supported it, while 41.2% were against.
There is no consensus on timing. Immediate rejoining is wanted by 25.9%, within three years by 22.9%, and within the next decade by 8.4%. About 23% said they do not want a closer relationship with the bloc. Nearly a third of those surveyed believe a separate referendum would be needed before rejoining; roughly equal shares would be prepared to rely on a general-election mandate or on a decision by Parliament.
According to TMG, if the prime minister proposed a new referendum and campaigned for a return to the EU, Labour’s vote share could rise by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points — mainly at the expense of Green and Liberal Democrat voters. The findings strengthen the position of those in government who are ready to discuss rejoining the bloc, but some senior Labour figures warn against reopening the Brexit divide.
The poll comes against the backdrop of comments by Prime Minister Andy Burnham. At the party conference in Liverpool he said Brexit had done more harm than good, and did not rule out the government “going all the way” and considering renewed membership. The government has not yet taken a decision to apply to rejoin: options for the relationship with Brussels are expected to be set out closer to the UK–EU summit in November.
