Centre-left has rallied but uproar over cost of living and oil fund investment in Israel means outcome is hard to predict.
Norway goes to the polls on Monday after an unusually close-fought and polarised election dominated by the cost of living, wealth taxes, oil fund investment in Israel and relations with Donald Trump.
There has been a surge in support for the populist rightwing Progress Party led by Sylvi Listhaug, in what has been described by some as the Maga-fication of Norwegian politics. In the event of a rightwing victory, Listhaug could become prime minister.
But according to polls, the most probable result is a narrow win for the centre-left, meaning a likely continuation of the minority Labour government led by Jonas Gahr Støre, who has been prime minister since 2021, with the former Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, one of Norway’s most popular politicians, as finance minister.
If Labour does win they could face drawn out negotiations with smaller leftwing parties, particularly over oil fund investment in Israel, which has led to Stoltenberg coming under heavy scrutiny in recent weeks.
The class and gender divide – which has led to many young men voting for the right – has been a mobilising factor on both ends of the political spectrum, with accusations of lies and disinformation from party leaders.
For leftwing parties the Gaza war has been an important theme, especially towards immigrant background Norwegians and young voters.
The Conservative Party, however, appears to have lost considerable support to the Progressive Party and the Green Party has unexpectedly gained more support.
Johannes Bergh, the research director and principal investigator at the Norwegian national election studies programme at the Institute for Social Research, said the top election issues have included grocery and energy prices, wealth taxes, healthcare and, unusually for Norwegian elections, which tend to be domestically focused, trade policy with the US.
A year ago, he said, it looked as if Labour would lose this election. But factors including the appointment of Stoltenberg and the perceived success of the prime minister’s meeting at the White House with Trump over trade, have turned their fortunes around.
There is very much a feeling that they have done a good job on US relations, said Bergh.
But there has also been a rise of support for the right, he added. There seems to be two duelling trends in Norwegian politics. One is a rightwing wave, especially around the young, and support for the sitting government.
Turnout in Norwegian elections is relatively high – usually between 75% and 80% – and this election has had record early voting.