“No sanctions while Trump and I are in power”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced on November 10 that Hungary has secured what he called a “permanent exemption” from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil imports. Writing on Facebook after his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, Orbán declared: “As long as he is president and I am prime minister, there will be no sanctions.”
The statement followed Orbán’s visit to the White House on November 7, where he said the two countries had “concluded the most important negotiations of the year.” He framed the deal as vital for Hungary’s economic security, arguing that sanctions would have tripled household energy costs and sent gasoline prices soaring before Christmas. “We have avoided catastrophe,” Orbán claimed, promising that “Hungarian families will celebrate Christmas as they wish.”
Political spin behind the “exemption”
While Orbán described the deal as indefinite, White House officials clarified that the waiver is temporary — valid for one year — and conditional on Hungary diversifying its energy imports away from Russia. Analysts view Orbán’s wording as a calculated political move aimed at domestic audiences ahead of Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary elections, where his Fidesz party faces the risk of losing its majority.
By portraying himself as the only European leader capable of negotiating directly with Trump, Orbán reinforces his image as a defender of “national interests” and as the guarantor of economic stability through “special relations” with Washington. His phrase “no sanctions while we are in power” is widely interpreted as an election slogan designed to mobilize conservative voters.
Strategic dependence and Western friction
Hungary remains heavily reliant on Russian energy: in 2024, it imported 74% of its gas and 86% of its oil from Russia. Despite technical capacity to shift supply routes — the Adriatic pipeline via Croatia could cover up to 80% of Hungary’s oil needs — Orbán’s government has shown little political will to pursue diversification.
The temporary U.S. concession undermines the unity of the Western coalition seeking to restrict Russia’s wartime revenues. Critics argue that granting Budapest special treatment weakens collective sanctions enforcement and signals disunity within NATO and the EU.
Orbán’s balancing act between Moscow and the West
Even after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Orbán has maintained close ties with the Kremlin. He continues to oppose EU sanctions, block military aid to Kyiv, and echo narratives favorable to Moscow. His government’s stance has turned Hungary into what many in Brussels call Russia’s “Trojan horse” inside the EU.
Relations between Budapest and the European Commission remain deeply strained. The EU has frozen billions in funds over rule-of-law concerns and corruption allegations, while Orbán accuses Brussels of “liberal dictatorship” and interference in national sovereignty.
Orbán’s foreign policy hinges on balancing between Russia and the West — extracting short-term gains from both while strategically isolating Hungary. His latest agreement with Trump may boost his domestic standing, but it further erodes Hungary’s credibility as a reliable European partner.