The Portuguese gambling regulator Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ) has taken tough measures against the popular crypto prediction platform Polymarket, completely banning its activities in the country. The decision followed a sharp surge in bets on the outcome of the 18 January 2026 presidential election. According to local media reports, more than €4 million was placed on Polymarket’s election-related markets in just a few hours before the official results were announced.
The total trading volume on the Portuguese presidential markets exceeded €103 million, which attracted the attention of the regulator. Particularly suspicious was the sharp jump in the probability of victory for the Socialist candidate António José Seguro: from around 60% in the morning to 96% by 6 p.m. and almost 100% shortly thereafter — even before the publication of official exit polls and initial results.
The SRIJ classified Polymarket’s activities as illegal for two main reasons:
The platform does not have a licence to provide gambling services in Portugal;
National legislation strictly prohibits betting on political events, both national and international.
The regulator gave Polymarket 48 hours to voluntarily cease operations in the country. In case of non-compliance, SRIJ ordered internet providers throughout Portugal to block access to the site.
‘Polymarket operates without the necessary authorisation, and betting on political events in Portugal is prohibited by law,’ the SRIJ said.
The scandal has intensified the already growing wave of bans on Polymarket in various countries. In recent months, the platform has already been blocked or restricted in a number of European countries, as well as in some jurisdictions in the United States and Asia, mainly due to similar claims of illegal gambling and insider trading risks.