The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a leading American think tank specialising in monitoring military conflicts, emphasises in its latest reports that Russia is likely to reject any version of the US-proposed plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. According to ISW experts, the Kremlin views these initiatives as an obstacle to achieving its strategic goals not only in Ukraine but also in the global geopolitical arena. This statement comes amid ongoing negotiations in Geneva and recent military strikes on Ukrainian cities, which underscore Moscow’s unwillingness to compromise.
The peace plan proposed by Donald Trump’s administration, known as the ‘28-point document,’ became one of the key elements of US diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine that began in February 2022. The initial version of the plan, developed in August 2025 at a summit in Alaska, included significant concessions on the part of Kyiv: recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and part of Donbas, a 20-year moratorium on NATO membership, demilitarisation of the Ukrainian army, and security guarantees for Moscow. These provisions essentially reflected the Kremlin’s ‘wish list,’ as noted by American senators who criticised the plan for its one-sidedness.
Following negotiations in Geneva on 23 November 2025 between delegations from the United States, Ukraine and, indirectly, Russia, the plan was partially revised. Ukraine secured the inclusion of provisions on a temporary freeze of the front line, international security guarantees and the gradual withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories. However, as the ISW points out, these changes do not alter Moscow’s fundamental position: the plan still does not address the ‘root causes’ of the conflict as formulated by Vladimir Putin, including the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state as an independent actor and the weakening of NATO.
ISW emphasises that Russia’s rejection of the plan is not just a tactical manoeuvre, but a strategic position aimed at achieving maximalist goals: ‘the destruction of the Ukrainian state and the weakening of NATO.’ According to analysts, Moscow sees the American proposals as a threat to its plans to reformat European security, including neutralising Ukraine as a buffer against the West. ‘The Kremlin has done nothing to prepare Russians for anything less than complete victory,’ the ISW report says.
The analysis clearly shows that Russia is not ready for peace on terms that do not ensure its complete victory. By rejecting the American plan, the Kremlin is not only stalling negotiations, but also using them to strengthen its position on the battlefield and in the information space. For Ukraine and the West, this means the need to strengthen support for Kyiv in order to avoid a ‘frozen conflict’ scenario, which Moscow could resume at any moment. As the ISW emphasises, true peace requires compromises on all sides, but as long as Russia sees them only as ‘an obstacle to its goals,’ hopes for a quick settlement are fading.