On November 27, 2025, a Soyuz-2.1a launch rocket carrying the Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft lifted off from pad 31/6 at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. On board were two Russian cosmonauts, Sergei Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikayev, as well as NASA astronaut Christopher Williams. The mission was successful: the crew safely docked with the ISS and joined the 73rd main expedition. However, the success of the new crew’s arrival was quickly replaced by concern. Damage to key elements of launch complex No. 31 jeopardized Roscosmos’ entire manned program. For the first time in more than 60 years, Russia lost the ability to independently send people into space.
After the launch, Roscosmos conducted a standard inspection of the site and discovered damage. A key element — a mobile service cabin weighing about 20 tons — collapsed and fell into the gas exhaust channel under the launch pad. This happened because the platform was apparently not properly secured before launch — an error that led to its destruction under the influence of vibrations and engine flames.
Launch pad 31/6 is the only one in Russia adapted for manned launches to the ISS. The historic “Gagarin launch pad” (pad No. 1) was decommissioned and turned into a museum. Other spaceports, such as Vostochny, are not equipped for Soyuz and Progress spacecraft in their current configuration — their conversion would take months or years.
Soyuz remains the primary means of transporting crews to the ISS for Russia and even for NASA (until recently). Progress cargo ships not only deliver supplies but also correct the station’s orbit and control its orientation. Without them, the Russian segment of the ISS risks degradation: equipment will fail and maintenance will become impossible.
This is the first such incident since 1961, when, after Yuri Gagarin’s flight, the Soviet program temporarily stalled due to technical problems. In the context of geopolitics—after 2022, Russia has already lost many international launch contracts—this is a blow to Roscosmos’ prestige and capabilities.
The state corporation has acknowledged the damage and promises “rapid restoration” using spare parts. However, experts are skeptical. Repairs could take anywhere from a week to two years, depending on the extent of the damage. Russia is obligated to maintain its segment of the station until 2030. A break in supplies could lead to an “avalanche of failures” of modules after 2025. NASA could compensate for the cargo via SpaceX, but Russian cosmonauts on the station (including the current crew) would find themselves isolated.
Roscosmos is considering accelerating work at Vostochny or cooperating with China (the ILRS lunar station project). However, this will require investments that are already lacking due to sanctions and corruption. Plans for a Russian orbital station have been postponed—the first module will not be ready before 2027.
While Russia is in crisis, the US and China dominate. SpaceX conducted over 100 launches in 2025, and China is building a lunar base. By 2025, Russia will have only 307 satellites, compared to 8,393 for the US.
Roscosmos will have to conduct an urgent investigation into the causes, ranging from human error to equipment wear and tear. If repairs are delayed, Russia may become a “passenger” in space for the first time in decades, relying on its partners. This is not only a technical problem, but also a strategic one: space is a symbol of power, and its loss damages Russia’s image.