Regardless of its size, Russia is once again focusing on its NATO neighbors. In September, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council claimed that Finland was preparing for war, an accusation previously made against the Baltic States, even as Moscow rebuilds a significant military presence along NATO’s eastern flank.
This year’s Zapad 2025 military drill raises three central questions: whether Russia is using the exercise to mask potential military preparations, the extent of its military capacities given the ongoing war in Ukraine, and how it fits into the broader geopolitical picture.
“I think the purpose is for [Vladimir] Putin to try to show that he is still strong, that the war in Ukraine hasn’t really affected them. But I don’t think that’s the truth,” says Lt. Gen. Lance Landrum (Ret). “They’re very capable, but how much can he really take on with the war in Ukraine, and how much has the war in Ukraine cost him? I think this is a display for nations and world media as part of their influence campaign.” Putin may also be hoping to gain additional bargaining power in ongoing US-Russia negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
“Zapad,” which translates as “West,” is a joint exercise testing the military readiness of Russia and Belarus, also known as the Union State. Just months after Zapad-2021, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine using forces that had remained in Belarus after the exercise ended. According to Landrum, this year’s exercise should be compared with events leading up to that invasion.
The 2011 Vienna Document of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) requires mandatory observation for military exercises involving more than 13,000 troops. The Lithuanian military says that there will be only 8,000 soldiers in Belarus at this year’s exercise, but the total number of participants in the region could reach up to 30,000.
For NATO, Zapad 2025 provides insights into Russian capabilities and strategies. Landrum notes that, just as on the battlefield in Ukraine, there will likely be significant drone activity. Equally, an absence of drone activity could indicate a lack of personnel or insufficient spare equipment. Monitoring the electromagnetic spectrum, particularly jamming and communication frequencies, will also provide valuable intelligence.
Even as Russia and Belarus prepare for and engage in drills, Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin recently appeared in China, demonstrating growing ties to Beijing by participating in a large military parade on September 3. China, while claiming neutrality on the war in Ukraine, has not condemned Russia’s aggression and has supplied substantial military aid to the Kremlin. Bilateral trade between China and Russia also reached new records in 2024.
The parade marked the first public meeting between China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Putin, and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Landrum cautions that this apparent alliance should be treated with skepticism. “Putin and Xi are very happy to get big headlines and be seen collaborating on the world stage. They like showing unity and strength. But how deep is that relationship really?”
He argues that it is unlikely to develop into an alliance like NATO or the Axis Powers during World War II. “China is not interested in multilateral organizations and alliances. They are focused on their own self-interest and sphere of influence, and will use this at their convenience to achieve their long-term strategic goals in the Indo-Pacific, pressure the United States and its allies, and pursue a multipolar world.”
It will nonetheless be important to see if China participates in Zapad 2025, along with other countries present at the military parade, such as North Korea and Iran. “Are they going to be invited? Will they have observers, or will there be a serious military engagement?” asks Landrum.
Zapad 2025 may be a carefully choreographed show of strength or may reveal the limits of Russia’s capabilities. Either way, it will provide crucial signals about Moscow’s military readiness and the evolving geopolitical alignments shaping Eurasia.