Less than two weeks before Hungary’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for April 12, opinion polls show that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling party Fidesz is facing the most serious challenge in its entire time in power. The main opposition player, the centrist Tisza party led by Péter Magyar, holds a confident lead in many independent opinion surveys.
According to a recent poll by the respected independent institute Medián (March 17–20), among decided voters Tisza garners 58% while Fidesz trails at just 35%. The gap has reached 23 percentage points — one of the largest figures recorded throughout the entire pre-election period. Among the total adult population, the opposition’s advantage stands at around 16 points (46% vs. 30%).
Other independent or opposition-leaning polling centres (Republikon, Minerva, 21 Kutatóközpont) also record Tisza leading by margins of 9 to 14 points. Even among voters under 30, support for the opposition exceeds 60%, while Fidesz drops to just 15%. Pollsters note that this could be the first Hungarian election in which the younger generation plays a decisive role.
Pro-government polling services (such as Nézőpont) traditionally paint a more optimistic picture for Orbán — Fidesz at 40–46% and Tisza at 40%. However, experts treat such figures with scepticism, viewing them as part of government propaganda.
Many experts are calling this election the most competitive since 2010 and one of the key events in Europe in 2026. A Tisza victory could lead to a shift in Hungary’s foreign policy direction — in particular, a softer stance toward the EU and greater support for Ukraine.
The final outcome will become clear on April 12. For now, pollsters agree on one thing: the era of Viktor Orbán’s unchallenged dominance has come to an end, and even if Fidesz retains power, it will have to reckon with a strong and consolidated opposition.