Wildfires were 30% more intense than would have been expected without global heating, scientists say
The extreme weather that fuelled devastating wildfires across Spain and Portugal last month was made 40 times more likely by climate breakdown, early analysis suggests.
The blazes, which torched 500,000 hectares (1.2m acres) of the Iberian peninsula in just weeks, were also 30% more intense than scientists would have expected in a world without global warming, according to researchers from the World Weather Attribution network.
“The sheer size of these fires has been astonishing,” said Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-author of the study. “Hotter, drier and more flammable conditions are becoming more severe with climate change, and are giving rise to fires of unprecedented intensity.”
Once-rare events becoming frequent
The researchers found that such conditions could have occurred once every 500 years in the preindustrial climate, but in today’s world – warmed by greenhouse gas pollution from burning coal, oil and gas – they could be expected every 15 years.
The effects of climate breakdown on extreme heat were even stronger. Ten-day maximum temperatures in the region last month were expected to occur only once every 2,500 years before industrialisation. They are now expected roughly every 13 years.
The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, relied on weather observations rather than climate model analysis the group usually conducts after destructive weather. A fuller analysis of Turkish and Greek wildfires, published last week, found climate change had made extreme weather conditions 10 times more likely.
Rural change adding to the risk
Changes in land use have compounded the rising regional risk. Several Mediterranean countries have struggled with the effects of rural abandonment and ageing populations. As younger generations move to cities, farmland is left unmanaged, allowing overgrown vegetation to accumulate – fuel for fires.
David Garcia, an applied mathematician at the University of Alicante, noted that Spanish public debate has largely focused on the decline of rural activities and the resulting growth of vegetation. “However, much less has been said about the effect of climate change on these fires, which, as has been demonstrated, has been immense.”
Political response
Pedro Sánchez, the Spanish prime minister, announced a 10-point climate plan on Monday to respond to increasingly extreme weather. In an interview, he warned that climate action was being undermined by mainstream rightwing parties adopting far-right narratives.