The political crisis in the UK has reached a critical point, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer under unprecedented pressure following the high-profile scandal surrounding Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to the US. According to sources in the ruling Labour Party, the likelihood of Starmer leaving office in the coming days — before the end of this week — is estimated at ‘50-50’.
It all began with the publication of new details about the ties between Lord Peter Mandelson, an influential Labour Party veteran, and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. These ties continued even after Epstein’s conviction, causing a wave of outrage both within the party and in society. Starmer initially defended the appointment, but in September 2025 he was forced to dismiss Mandelson from his post as ambassador. However, the scandal did not subside — on the contrary, it escalated into a full-blown crisis of confidence in the prime minister.
The culmination came on 8 February with the resignation of Starmer’s closest ally, his chief of staff Morgan McSweeny. It was McSweeny who took ‘full responsibility’ for the advice to appoint Mandelson, stating in his resignation letter: “The decision to appoint Peter Mandelson was wrong. It has damaged our party, our country and trust in politics as a whole.‘ Many observers saw his departure as an attempt to ’let off steam” and save the prime minister, but the effect was the opposite.
According to Bloomberg, a number of senior Downing Street officials are privately urging cabinet members to either directly advise Starmer to step down or resign themselves in order to provoke his downfall. One of the minister’s advisers told the agency directly: ‘There is a 50-50 chance that he will no longer be prime minister next week.’
For now, Starmer’s entourage officially insists that he intends to ‘continue his work’ and has a ‘five-year mandate from the voters.’ However, even within the party, there are voices saying that his leadership is ‘mortally wounded’ and that the question is no longer “if” but ‘when.’
If he does resign in the coming days, it will be one of the most rapid falls from grace of a prime minister in recent British history — just a year and a half after Labour’s convincing victory in the 2024 election.