Air incursions, military drills and escalating hybrid warfare hint at a new and alarming level of Russian aggression. Is it just for show?
Russia and Belarus held joint military drills in September. But the biennial exercises were overshadowed by something that may be more ominous — an outbreak of drone and aerial incursions across Poland and the Nordic-Baltic states that illustrate NATO members’ vulnerability to disabling attacks on fragile systems like civil airports.
Zapad-2025 is an established Kremlin method of baring its military teeth to its near-neighbors. The official reason for September’s large-scale exercises is to test the ability of the two countries to repel an enemy attack, retake lost territory, and secure the borders of what they refer to as their “Union State.”
These drills have often triggered alarm across the NATO alliance, particularly in the Baltic states and Poland, which have a deep historical and recent sensitivity to Kremlin aggression. While Zapad-2025 is intended as a high-profile demonstration of Russian-Belarusian operational capacity to invade their neighbors, using conventional and nuclear-capable forces, the intent behind the airspace incursions was less clear.
These have become a daily occurrence. On the night of September 30, for example, unidentified drones were reported at both a Norwegian and a Swedish airport. Earlier in the month, a large-scale military drone incursion struck Poland, followed by drones crossing into Romania. Shortly after, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace. Numerous unattributed drone flights have since been recorded in Nordic nations — most notably the September 22 “attack” that closed Copenhagen airport, the busiest in the region.
Russia has not been officially blamed for all the incursions, but that is the essence of shadow warfare. The targets understand who is behind it (Denmark has indicated it believes Russia is to blame, citing a “professional actor”), but cannot immediately show the evidence. Meanwhile, the disruption is enormous, the victim looks impotent, and public trust in government is damaged.
Russia’s integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) into its hybrid warfare strategy highlights its improved drone technology, which is also making an impact on the battlefields of Ukraine. Despite multiple economic sanctions, Russia has been able to upgrade navigation and control systems — often with the aid of China — making the current generation deadlier and more capable than its predecessors.
Debates within NATO capitals on how best to respond to the new wave of Russian aggression have led to a decision to bolster the alliance’s eastern flank with counter-drone units and fighter jets.
The Kremlin also used the Zapad-2025 drills to showcase high-end capabilities, including Tu-22M3 bombers. This was intended as a signal that its long-range aviation remains combat-ready despite Kyiv’s devastating June operation that destroyed a significant part of Moscow’s strategic aircraft fleet.
Although the exercises were smaller than the joint drills of 2021, just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they fit the broader pattern of Moscow raising tensions along NATO’s eastern flank.
The drills followed Belarus’s suspension of its participation in the 1990 Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty and the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic systems on its territory. Meanwhile, Russia continues to build up bases near Finland and the Baltic states, even as the war in Ukraine grinds on.
Taken together, these developments suggest that Moscow is opening a new chapter in its campaign of intimidation and pressure aimed at European NATO’s most steadfast allies. The Nordic-Baltic Eight are also the biggest per capita contributors to Ukraine’s defense.
In response, NATO conducted military drills near the Suwałki Gap — the narrow corridor on the Poland-Lithuania border linking Belarus to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. The area is strategically vital for the Baltic states, as it represents their only land connection with the rest of NATO, and has long been regarded as a prime target for Moscow.
Although some argue that Russia’s stagnating economy limits its combat capabilities, there is little evidence of any immediate reduction in its military power. Moscow has repeatedly dismissed the effect of sanctions, and while Ukraine’s campaign against refineries and energy pipelines has an impact, Putin and his aides appear confident enough to expand their campaign.
The Kremlin is betting that a combination of intimidation and hybrid operations will secure a buffer zone near its borders and maintain its influence in the post-Soviet region. What remains uncertain is whether NATO can summon a decisive response.