Concerns are growing in the European Union about a new major migration wave from the Middle East amid the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran. The conflict, now in its fourth day, has already led to widespread destruction, the deaths of thousands, and a sharp deterioration in the humanitarian situation in the region.
According to experts and European diplomats, the escalation of hostilities, economic collapse in Iran, destruction of infrastructure, and instability in neighboring countries (Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and the Persian Gulf) could trigger the exodus of millions of people. The main flight routes are predicted to pass through Turkey, Greece, and Italy—these countries traditionally serve as gateways to Europe.
The European Commission has already stepped-up monitoring migration trends. Ursula von der Leyen, at an emergency meeting of the College of Commissioners on March 2, stated that Brussels is preparing for “unpredictable consequences,” including migration, and is strengthening cooperation with Frontex, Europol, and UN agencies. Attention is being paid to the potential increase in the number of refugees from Iran, Afghanistan, and other countries in the region, which already host millions of displaced persons.
“If the Iranian regime collapses or the conflict drags on, we could see the largest migration wave since the Syrian crisis of 2015-2016,” warn analysts at the Migration Research Institute and other experts. Turkey, already hosting over 3.5 million Syrian refugees, is actively updating its contingency plans for a mass exodus from Iran and strengthening border controls.
The EU fears that a new wave will exacerbate internal divisions: Eastern European countries (Hungary, Poland) are intensifying anti-migration rhetoric, while southern states (Italy, Greece) are demanding immediate solidarity and redistribution of arrivals. Orban in Hungary has already raised the terrorist threat level, linking it to a possible increase in migration and terrorist risks.
While there are no official figures on the new influx, the UNHCR and IOM are already recording the first signs of increased displacement within the region. The EU emphasizes that without rapid de-escalation and a “credible transition” in Iran, the consequences for Europe will be dire, ranging from rising energy prices to new migration pressures and security threats.
Brussels is calling on all parties to exercise maximum restraint but acknowledges that the chances of a quick resolution are currently minimal.