Donald Trump has declared he is ready to move to a new stage of sanctions against Russia, raising questions about what impact such measures could have and how they might reshape the transatlantic approach to Moscow.
Sanctions So Far
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western allies have sanctioned more than 2,500 people and entities, including Vladimir Putin, government ministers, oligarchs, military commanders, propagandists, and state or private companies supporting the war. About $335bn of Russian central bank assets were frozen; many Russian banks were excluded from the Swift system; exports of military-related goods and consumer items were halted; and imports of Russian diamonds were banned.
Earlier sanctions introduced after the 2014 annexation of Crimea were extended, alongside travel bans and asset freezes for individuals involved in human rights abuses, such as the jailors of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
The Gaps
Despite these measures, Russia has maintained vital lifelines through energy sales and middlemen in non-Western countries. The EU banned most oil imports but granted exemptions to Hungary and Slovakia, while still sourcing 3% of its oil and 13% of its gas from Russia. A price cap on Russian oil forced Moscow to sell discounted fuel to China and India, using a “shadow fleet” of poorly regulated ships. EU sanctions have targeted hundreds of these vessels, yet new ones continue to appear.
Turkey, the Caucasus, and China remain key hubs for sanction evasion, acting as intermediaries for restricted goods.
Impact on Russia
Sanctions have caused inflation, depleted reserves, and threatened long-term economic decline. But the Russian economy has avoided collapse, largely due to massive state spending on the war effort. Analysts argue that sanctions are forcing Moscow into costly trade-offs, redirecting resources to sustain a war economy while undermining social programs.
Some experts suggest that Russia’s economic data may overstate growth and understate inflation. Forecasts indicate that by 2026 Russia may struggle to finance the war at its current scale. For now, however, it continues to escalate attacks on Ukraine.
The Trump Effect
Trump’s return to the White House raised concerns in Europe that the US might suddenly lift sanctions, fracturing Western unity. Instead, he has alternated between threats and delays. He has repeatedly set deadlines for ceasefires, vowing to impose tariffs or secondary sanctions, only to let the deadlines pass.
After his Alaska summit, the US imposed 50% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, though no similar action was taken against China. Following recent heavy strikes on Ukraine, Trump confirmed he was ready for a “second phase” of sanctions but did not provide details.
What Comes Next
EU officials are now engaging more closely with Washington, exploring options for coordinated measures. Both sides are debating tougher secondary sanctions against countries helping Russia circumvent restrictions. But such steps carry risks: Europe is pursuing trade deals with India and remains cautious about measures against China, one of its largest partners.
The EU is preparing new proposals on sanctions, while uncertainty looms over Trump’s next moves. His unpredictable approach to foreign policy leaves allies waiting to see whether his threats will finally translate into concrete action.