Throughout Donald Trump’s second presidential term, analysts have been tracking a suspicious pattern: traders place bets worth millions of dollars shortly before the president makes major announcements. The BBC examined trade volume data across several financial markets and matched them to the president’s most significant statements, uncovering a consistent pattern of activity spikes hours — or sometimes minutes — before a social media post or media interview goes public.
The most striking example occurred on March 9, 2026. Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the American-Israeli war with Iran was “very complete, pretty much.” The public learned of this at 15:16 Eastern Time, when a reporter posted about it on X. Yet 47 minutes earlier, the market had already recorded a massive surge of bets on falling oil prices. After the interview broke, oil plunged 25%, and traders made millions.
A similar picture emerged on prediction markets. In early January 2026, a user known as “Burdensome-Mix” placed a $32,500 bet on Polymarket that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would leave office. The day after a US operation, the account walked away with hundreds of thousands of dollars. In February 2026, six accounts on the same platform collectively won $1.2 million by “predicting” US strikes on Iran.
As for potential White House ties: Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is an investor in Polymarket and sits on its advisory board.
Some experts argue that the precise timing of the bets and the traders’ seemingly prophetic accuracy point to the use of confidential information available only to those in the president’s inner circle. Others are less definitive, suggesting that some traders have simply gotten better at anticipating Trump’s moves.
On April 20, the Senate Banking Committee sent a letter to the SEC demanding an investigation into whether classified military information had been used for personal gain. White House spokesman Davis Ingle stated that “President Trump has made it crystal clear that members of Congress and other government officials must not use non-public information for financial gain,” while adding that allegations made without evidence are baseless.
Still, the prospects for criminal prosecution appear slim. A professor at a French graduate school of economics told the BBC: “You can have massive trades on financial instruments that clearly show someone knew what Trump was about to declare — and yet there is a strong chance that no one will be prosecuted.”