Oil exports remain a key source of revenue for the Russian budget, financing the war in Ukraine and supporting the economy. However, in 2025, the situation changed radically. New US sanctions, Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, and global market factors led to a sharp drop in Russian oil volumes and prices. According to analysts, in the first 11 months of 2025, Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell by 22% compared to 2024, amounting to about $102 billion. In November, maritime exports fell to a three-month low, and prices for the flagship Urals brand dropped below $40 per barrel.
In November 2025, Russian oil exports by sea fell by 530,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to October, reaching 3.36 million bpd — the lowest level since August. Total crude oil exports in the first half of 2025 amounted to 4.3 million b/d, which is 0.5 million b/d less than in 2024. The largest decline was observed in the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, where deliveries fell below 1 million b/d, the lowest level since December 2022, when the G7 price cap was introduced.
Prices for Urals, Russia’s main export brand, fell to $36.61 per barrel at the end of last week — the lowest level in almost three years. The discount to the Brent benchmark reached $23.52, three times more than in August ($1–2). In India, a key market, discounts on Urals for December are $5–6 to Brent. This has caused the cost of exports from Russian ports to fall to their lowest level since April 2023.
Western sanctions are the main factor exerting pressure. In October 2025, the US imposed restrictions on the two largest producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which account for about 50% of exports (2.2 million bpd). Since November 21, all transactions with them, including banks and logistics, have been prohibited. This forced key buyers — India and China — to reduce imports: Indian refineries Reliance and Nayara suspended purchases, as did Chinese Sinopec and PetroChina. As a result, about 1.4 million bpd of Russian oil is “stuck” on tankers as floating storage.
Since 2022, exports have shifted to the East: Europe’s share has fallen from 34% to almost zero (except for pipeline supplies via Druzhba to Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic). In the first half of 2025, China and India purchased 84% of maritime exports: China — 2.1 million bpd, India — 1.9 million bpd. Turkey remains the leader in petroleum products (26% in September). However, even here, demand is falling: in November, India reduced imports by 32% due to sanctions, and China by 45% for certain grades. Total revenues from fossil fuels in September amounted to €546 million per day — the lowest since 2022 and half the level of September 2022. China still dominates: 42% of revenues from the top five importers (€5.5 billion in September).
Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries are exacerbating the situation: since August 2025, attacks have knocked out 20% of capacity, reducing processing by 3–6%. In October, gasoline exports were banned until May 2026, leading to a fuel crisis within the country. The port of Novorossiysk (2.2 million bpd) suspended shipments after a drone attack on November 14.
Russian oil exports are experiencing a deep crisis in 2025: volumes are falling, prices are in free fall, and revenues are at a three-year low. For the Kremlin, this is a blow to its “war chest,” but adaptation through China may prolong the agony. The world is watching: will this stop the war or just accelerate Russia’s economic collapse?