For the past few weeks, the small nation of Moldova in southeastern Europe has received more attention than it would like. That signals its importance.
Moldova at the Crossroads
Moldova, with a population of 2.4 million and celebrating its 34th anniversary of independence from the Soviet Union this year, is a frontline state in the battle for influence between European democracies and the Kremlin’s model of compliant states.
The difference is often defined as a struggle between the European and Eurasian models: in one, individual rights and freedoms are emphasized; in the other, they are subordinated to the needs of the state. This is a familiar story across Russia’s borderlands, where independence and friendship with democratic countries are, in the Kremlin’s eyes, indistinguishable from hostility toward its aims.
That theme has played out in Georgia, although with nuance. It is not accurate to call Tbilisi a Russian puppet, but the shift from three decades of closer ties with the West to a repressive administration that effectively abandoned its European Union (EU) membership bid — despite overwhelming public support — has underscored the stakes in Moldova.
Strategic Location
Moldova’s importance lies in geography. Wedged between the EU frontier state of Romania — with which most Moldovans share a language — and southeastern Ukraine, it is a natural launching point for influence campaigns and destabilization.
Russia uses the breakaway region of Transnistria, separated from Moldova at Moscow’s behest in 1990, for these purposes. The Russian military presence there consists of only 1,500 mostly local troops, but its intelligence services and allies exploit the enclave to interfere in Moldovan governance and to threaten Ukraine.
The plan to unify Transnistria with Russian-occupied lands in southern Ukraine was part of Moscow’s 2022 strategy, but was thwarted by Ukrainian resistance. Nevertheless, the Kremlin continues its attempts to pull Moldova back into its sphere of influence, as seen in extensive interference during the September 28 elections.
“Russia’s aim is clear: to capture Moldova through the ballot box,” said President Maia Sandu before her pro-European party’s victory.
Democratic Resistance
In both Sandu’s 2024 reelection and the referendum on EU membership, as well as the 2025 parliamentary vote, Moldovans resisted Kremlin efforts to derail their European path. The experience has strengthened Moldova’s ability to counter Russian interference, making it a valuable case study in combating well-funded influence campaigns.
The country’s “geopolitical de-Russification” aims to ensure Moldova’s westward trajectory and prevent any return to satellite status. The break with the past is especially clear now that Moldova is ready to open EU accession talks. Following its transition from EU partner state to candidate, it has cemented a place in the map of enlargement policy and earned recognition as a reliable supporter of Ukraine.
A Regional Role
Moldova’s embedding into Western coalitions is deepening, particularly through its “coupling” with Ukraine on both security and enlargement issues. The government relies on EU and Western financial and institutional support to strengthen the economy and society.
Key priorities include fighting corruption, reforming the justice system, and preventing oligarchs from reclaiming control of state institutions. These reforms are critical to both EU progress and domestic stability.
Security and Connectivity
Moldova is upgrading its military and security services through cooperation with the EU, NATO, Romania, and Ukraine. The EU’s European Peace Facility has allocated €197 million to support military capabilities, while Moldova participates in NATO exercises. These efforts respect constitutional neutrality but contribute to wider deterrence against Russian influence.
Security cooperation with the EU could also help resolve the Transnistrian conflict. With Moscow struggling to subsidize the separatist enclave, the coming years may open a window to dismantle this long-frozen dispute.
At the same time, Moldova can contribute to regional connectivity by offering its infrastructure — roads, railways, and bridges — to link Ukraine more directly with the EU. Projects to improve transport connections with Romania and Ukraine are already underway.
Looking Ahead
Moldova’s trajectory is clear: westward. From strengthening its democracy and economy to upgrading its security role and infrastructure, the country has much to offer. The challenge now lies not only with Moldova’s persistence, but with the West’s readiness to recognize and seize the advantages of welcoming Moldova into its ranks.