In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. It was an armed aggression against a sovereign state, and at the same time an alarming signal for the whole of Europe, as the Kremlin flagrantly violated international security principles, jeopardizing the stability of European countries and, indeed, the borders of the European Union. In response, perhaps for the first time so large a European state, an unprecedented decision was taken to impose massive economic and financial sanctions on Russia. Coordinated Western sanctions focused not only on punishing aggression, but also on the preventive strengthening of European security.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was not only the largest military aggression since WWII, but also a factor of destabilization of the European space through the very real threat of further expansion of the conflict through escalation in the Baltic, Black and Northern Seas, through hybrid operations and pressure on neighbouring states. In the current situation, the EU and Europe as a whole, the US, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, Japan and more than 60 other countries were called not only to support Ukraine but also to build a system of deterrence to prevent possible military escalation by Russia.
Sanctions have become one of the main components of this deterrence. Their goal is to limit Russia’s technical and resource endowment, its ability to wage a long war, and thus significantly raise the price of such aggressive foreign-policy behavior for the Kremlin. In the directory of the European Parliament noted that the sanctions regime is aimed at weakening Russia’s economic base, depriving it of vital technologies and markets and significantly reducing its ability to wage war». Moreover, sanctions have an important symbolic effect: they demonstrate to the world that the aggressor will not go unpunished, that Europe is not just an object of pressure but an active agent of protection. And in the context of Europe’s security, this is fundamental. Sanctions against Russia include several key blocks. This is a ban on the export of technology, equipment and services (especially dual-use) to industry and the defense sector; financial measures based on the freezing of Russia’s bank reserves, limiting access to Western capital; trade/energy restrictions, which are primarily aimed at Russian hydrocarbons and their transportation; as well as coordination with partners (G7, EU) and the elaboration of measures against circumvention of sanctions.
The EU alone has introduced 19 packages of sanctions against Russia since February 2022, the last one on October 23, 2025. What have been the results? According to the report of the EconPol Europe network, it is said that until mid-2024 Russian imports and exports were seriously disrupted, Russia had to turn to suppliers from China, Turkey, Kazakhstan. As a result, the share of authorized goods that Russia has been able to replace is between 60% and 170% of the 2021 level. The official website of the European Foreign Policy Service (EEAS) at the end of 2024 noted that sanctions measures are already yielding tangible results across the entire Russian economy. Thus, the production of cars in 2022 fell by 48%, computer and optical devices – by 8%. It should be assumed that the situation in Russia has not improved for now. Information from the Russian media indicates that many civilian enterprises, such as AvtoVAZ, were forced to switch to a 4-day workweek, which caused a reduction in workers’ wages and their mass layoffs. The energy bloc of sanctions is particularly important, since it is the trade in hydrocarbons that forms the basis of the Russian economy. According to the Council of the European Union (Consilium), Russia’s oil revenues have already decreased since December 2022. With the adoption of a new, 19th sanctions package, the EU has imposed a total ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). For short-term contracts – within six months of entry into force, and for long-term contracts – from 1 January 2027. In addition, the previous exemptions have been removed and operations with such large Russian oil and gas companies as Rosneft and Gazprom Neft have been banned.
Thus, the impact mechanism exists and works effectively. The lack of access to technology, markets and capital affects key sectors, reduces the resource base and creates significant restrictions on the modernization of the economy in general and the military sector in particular.
It should be noted that Russia did not collapse immediately, and this is why. On the one hand, there are data on the reduction of GDP and trade. In 2022, the Russian economy contracted by 1.6%. In 2025, the Russian economy slowed down and neared recession, although according to various sources, figures remain positive at around 0.6%. On the other hand, experts fix stability due to the reconfiguration of shopping chains. But the key point is not just growth or decline. The significance is that economic difficulties accumulate, bottlenecks appear such as lack of modern technologies, outdated equipment, falling quality of output, rising costs for war and reduced fiscal sustainability. For example, the EU report points to the fact that sanctions require strategic patience, and although they do not bring quick results, they weaken the productivity, engineering base in authorized enterprises. According to the Swedish institute SITE, presented in May this year during a meeting of the EU Council on economic and financial issues in Brussels, Russia is «economically fragile», and if sanctions and aid to Ukraine are continued, the Kremlin’s resources for war could be exhausted within a year or a half. Hence the important conclusion: even if Russia maintains a visible resilience, its future capabilities, modernization, technological breakthrough, prolonged war, are seriously undermined. This means that Europe has more time and space to strengthen its security and defence capabilities.
Why is all this important not only as an economic policy, but as a European security policy? There are several interrelated points.
Containing further aggression is a key priority of European policy. If Russia remains capable of launching new military operations or expanding rapidly, Europe risks being in a position where attacking its neighbor is only the first step. Sanctions increase the «price of error» for Moscow. Equally important is the role of sanctions as a means to prevent the erosion of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. Europe cannot afford to see the aggressive side as a norm. The Kremlin is setting a precedent that if aggression remains without significant consequences, other authoritarian regimes may decide to act similarly. Sanctions are an important element of the demonstration that there are limits and boundaries.
At the same time, sanctions provide a temporary buffer for Europe. While Russia is limited in access to capital, technology, and markets, Europe has a window to strengthen defense, modernize armaments, strengthen alliances (such as NATO), diversify energy, and reduce dependence on Russian resources. Without this buffer, any round of escalation could have left Europe unprepared.
Finally, sanctions play a preventive role in the economic and political dimensions. Russia has traditionally used energy, finance, diversions to weaken its neighbors or pressure the EU. The limitation of its resource base mitigates this scenario.
In this sense, sanctions are seen not as an end in themselves, but as a component of a security strategy, a tool that gives Europe time advantage, reduces the risk of a future surprise strike, and strengthens its internal consolidation. Nevertheless, it must be recognized that sanctions do not work instantly and solve all problems. Russia still managed to adapt partially, actively readjusting trade, turning to new markets using «shadow» schemes. For example, the study notes that Russia receives a significant share of authorized goods from China, Central Asian countries. ww1. As already mentioned, the economic effect is gradual, that is to say, a deterrent for Europe requires a long-term vision. Europe also bears its own costs: energy dependence, rising prices, pressure on the budget and industry. If there is no sound policy of domestic sustainability, the impact of sanctions may be weakened. Finally, sanctions do not replace policies in other areas. Military capabilities, diplomacy, defense strategy remain key. An economic shock alone will not force the regime to curtail aggression immediately.
Nevertheless, summing up, it can be said that the effectiveness of sanctions in the context of European security is not to «quickly defeat» Russia, but to create a long-term «dampening» force that makes aggression less profitable and more risky.
In the light of the above, the following conclusions can be drawn. Sanctions against Russia are an essential component of the European security strategy, as they create a deterrent structure and provide time to strengthen defence capabilities. Russia’s economy is experiencing severe structural constraints, even if it looks stable at first sight, key sectors are shrinking, access to technology is limited, and export earnings are falling.
It is important for Europe not to see sanctions as a one-off measure, but as a long-term strategy that requires strengthening the coordination of sanctions, blocking bypass routes, and supporting the adaptation of its own economic space.
A combination of measures combining sanctions, military and defense training, economic diversification and energy is needed. This is the only way to ensure that Russia’s aggression does not go unpunished or become a precedent.
In the long run, the success of sanctions is measured not by Russia’s immediate impact, but by its ability to act aggressively being systematically and gradually reduced, while Europe has made itself less vulnerable.
Sanctions are not an end in themselves, but a key lever; they are not just economic action, but an element of Europe’s political-security architecture. At this point, it is up to her determination whether the aggressor will be able to bet on a quick victory or face organized resistance and suppression.