Nearly 50 million people in the world’s most vulnerable regions risk falling into acute hunger by the end of next year due to a rapidly strengthening El Niño, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) warned on 5 August 2026.
WFP projects that the number of people facing acute food insecurity in 45 vulnerable countries could rise from about 225 million to 274 million — an increase of nearly 49 million, or 22%. There is an 81% chance El Niño will become very strong, potentially the most powerful since 1950. It is expected to peak between September and December 2026, with effects lasting through 2027.
The hardest hit are likely to be Central America (up to 83% increase), southern Africa (nearly 75%), South America and the Caribbean. Each of these regions could see more than 12 million additional people unable to meet daily food needs. Significant risks also exist in East and Southern Africa, and parts of Asia.
This comes on top of an already severe crisis: hundreds of millions in Africa face hunger due to multi-year drought, while the war in Iran is driving up global food prices by disrupting supply chains and raising costs of fuel and fertilizers.
Even a weaker-than-forecast El Niño could push many countries over the edge. While global food stocks remain relatively stable after strong 2025 harvests, the combination of climate shocks, conflict and rising prices creates a dangerous situation.
WFP is calling for early action — expanded anticipatory aid, better monitoring and more funding — to protect the most vulnerable communities.