The snap parliamentary elections scheduled for April 19 this year will be the eighth in Bulgaria in the past 5 years. All previous attempts to form a stable and viable coalition have failed for several years in a row, and governments have changed almost every year, due to the difficult political confrontation between the main parties, corruption scandals, as well as some other geopolitical factors. As a result, Bulgaria enters a new election campaign with weakened state institutions, growing political radicalism and problems in the fight against corruption.
Political instability in Bulgaria significantly worsened in 2020 due to mass anti-corruption protests, which in turn led to the emergence of a number of new political projects that positioned themselves as anti-corruption fighters and reformers. Since then, the parliament, due to the inability to form a stable coalition, has dissolved itself several times, and the conflict between the old political parties and the new forces has entered a phase of systemic confrontation, which lasted for the next 5 years.
In November last year, the government submitted a draft budget for 2026, which included an increase in taxes on dividends and an increase in social contributions to finance growing public spending. The public and business associations called it “the worst budget in 30 years,” accusing the government of trying to shift the burden of economic hardship onto the population in order to meet the criteria for joining the eurozone. In fact, this budget draft became the trigger for large-scale demonstrations that swept across Bulgaria at the end of last year (the so-called “Generation Z protests”), when Bulgarians protested against total corruption.
The government of Rosen Zhelyazkov (GERB-SDS coalition), which lasted almost the entire year of 2025, resigned on December 11, 2025, and in January 2026, President Rumen Radev resigned, stating that Bulgarian democracy could not survive in the hands of “corrupt officials and extremists”. After that, to participate in the elections, the ex-president decided to gather and lead a political force, which included two small social democratic parties and one conservative movement. They are going to the new elections as a coalition called “Progressive Bulgaria”. Since Radev was a key player in the formation of interim governments, his resignation and transition to party politics finally blocked the possibility of any compromises in the current composition of parliament and thus left no other option but to announce early elections on April 19, 2026. The appointment of the election date gave new impetus to the political turbulence, which Moscow traditionally tries to take advantage of to keep forces loyal to it in power.
The political situation in Bulgaria has been inextricably linked to Russian influence for decades. Historically, the country has close cultural and economic ties with Russia, which creates favorable conditions for information operations and hybrid intervention by the Kremlin. Bulgaria has long remained one of the EU members most energy-dependent on Russia. After the start of the Russian Federation’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the issue of increasing Russian influence in Bulgaria has become even more urgent. Bulgarian intelligence services and their European partners have repeatedly reported the exposure of networks of influence associated with Russian intelligence.
If earlier the pro-Russian wing was represented mainly by radical or marginal parties, now its center of influence is former President Rumen Radev and the political force “Progressive Bulgaria” led by him. Its chances in the elections are assessed by observers and analysts as quite high. According to the latest polls (Alpha Research and Gallup), the coalition is leading with a result of 31–35%.
Rumen Radev himself is considered a pro-Russian politician in Bulgaria, remaining the main “advocate” and leader of Russian interests even after his resignation from the presidency. During his presidency, he actively opposed attempts to limit the influence of Russian capital in Bulgaria and is a consistent opponent of European sanctions against Russia. In February 2026, he stated that Bulgaria would veto sanctions against Russian nuclear fuel, as this “contradicts our interests”. In addition to numerous pro-Russian statements, he used his powers (in particular, the right of veto) to prevent the allocation of tranches of military aid to Ukraine. Radev skillfully disguises his pro-Russian stance as “patriotism”. He convinces voters that Bulgaria should be neutral so as not to become a “victim” of the conflict and that cheap Russian resources are a guarantee of the well-being of Bulgarians.
The Kremlin is also betting on the Renaissance party (Vazrazhdane), led by Kostadin Kostadinov. In essence, this political force is a classic radical, anti-Western and pro-Russian party. It demands Bulgaria’s withdrawal from NATO and the EU, the immediate lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation, and openly cooperates with the United Russia party. According to opinion polls, it has a stable 10-13% support and may become the third or fourth largest force in the future parliament.
Pro-Western forces in Bulgaria are currently in a somewhat difficult situation due to the emergence of a powerful pro-Russian bloc of ex-President Radev and his satellites. However, the country remains a strong core of parties that consistently advocate the preservation of anti-Russian sanctions and intend to counteract Russian influence. The coalition “We Continue Changes – Democratic Bulgaria” has about 11-13% according to polls. Its electoral core is mainly composed of the urban middle class and young people oriented towards the West.
The pro-European bloc is also represented by the center-right GERB-SDS party of Boyko Borisov. He supports the EU’s decision on sanctions against the Russian Federation and the provision of reparation loans to Ukraine (which he announced at summits in Brussels at the end of 2025). According to polls, his political force has a 14-15% chance. This is another powerful force that could become the basis for creating a “deterrent” coalition against pro-Russian forces. The list is closed by the New Beginning Party (DPS) of media magnate Delyan Peevski, which represents the interests of the Turkish minority and big business in Bulgaria. In parliament, they position themselves as the “Euro-Atlantic majority.”
The April 19 elections will be another test for the Bulgarian political system. Opinion polls show that no party has enough support to form a single majority. This means that the country may once again find itself facing the need for difficult coalition negotiations. There are several possible scenarios: the formation of a broad coalition between pro-European forces, a technocratic government with the support of several parties, or another political deadlock that could lead to new elections in the medium term.