Afghanistan continues to be the world leader in opium and heroin production and is “adapting” drug trafficking routes to new geopolitical conditions. One of these, the so-called “Northern Corridor” through Central Asia and Russia, is increasingly becoming the focus of European and international reports. This is not just a matter of logistics. A few analytical studies and investigations have traced a systematic link between transnational criminal networks, local security forces, and Russian political interests. This combination can be seen as one of the tools of hybrid pressure on Europe.
Experts identify four key corridors into Europe: the Balkan, Southern, Caucasian, and Northern corridors. The Northern corridor runs through Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan/Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan, then to Russia and on to EU countries (including the Baltic states, Poland, and Central Europe). This corridor has become a serious problem for European law enforcement agencies, as it utilizes extensive land borders and a complex network of carriers and intermediaries.
The drug trafficking flows to Europe are controlled by organized criminal groups, often with Russian-speaking roots and established connections in Russia and Central Asian countries. Multiple reports document a persistent link between crime and state structures. Brookings and a number of similar studies emphasize that in countries within the orbit of the Russian political and economic system, organized crime often operates in an environment of entrenched corruption, weak state institutions, and close ties between business, local security forces, and political elites. As a result, criminal networks become embedded in broader economic processes, from shadow logistics to informal financial flows, and can perform functions that intersect with the interests of state structures. Analysts note that such “connections” create conditions where criminal groups are able to influence processes on a regional and transregional scale, including in the sphere of security.
Reports of large consignments of drugs seized in Kazakhstan and at the EU borders confirm the high throughput capacity of the Northern Corridor, which facilitates the movement of large consignments of Afghan opiates and, increasingly, synthetic drugs.
According to international reports, several large drug seizures were recorded in Kazakhstan in the first half of 2023, one of which amounted to 102 kg, indicating large initial volumes of shipments. In July 2024, Kazakhstan’s border service and law enforcement agencies, with the assistance of international partners, recorded record trafficking. Experts confirmed that the confiscated shipment of heroin amounted to approximately 775 kg (with an estimated market value of tens of millions of dollars).
On August 12, 2024, Bulgarian customs officials discovered 436 kg of heroin at the port of Burgas. The shipment was transported by sea and was intended for further distribution in Europe. This shows that some of the flows passing through the Black Sea connect to the transit channels of the northern and Balkan directions.
Research by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) shows that part of the production of synthetic substances and logistics has shifted to Central Asian countries, allowing trafficking to become integrated into local illegal economies.
Drug trafficking along the Northern Corridor must be viewed from two perspectives. On the one hand, there are criminal groups for whom the transit of opiates and synthetic drugs is simply a highly profitable business. On the other hand, these drug flows are used by state structures working in Russia’s interests. There is ample evidence that trafficking can serve as a tool of hybrid influence.
The first level of such instrumentalization concerns finance. According to observations by researchers at Brookings and other think tanks, criminal proceeds in a number of countries can be recycled through shadow schemes, ranging from “slush funds” to offshore channels linked to corrupt elites. These funds are partly used to bribe representatives of the authorities and security forces.
The second mechanism is related to the social impact. The widespread availability of cheap drugs leads to an increase in drug addiction, crime, and additional pressure on health care and law enforcement systems. European monitoring bodies, including the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) and national agencies, have repeatedly noted that drug flows unhindered through the Northern Corridor, 80% of which passes through Russian territory, create conditions for internal destabilization once they reach Europe, which reduces the stability of societies, exacerbates social conflicts, and undermines trust in state institutions. Such social erosion is entirely consistent with the logic of hybrid instruments aimed at weakening an opponent without the direct use of force.
The third component concerns the logistics base. GI-TOC analysts emphasize that drug trafficking provides a stable transport infrastructure: a network of routes, warehouses, and transport companies that formally operate in the “legal” sector. These chains, created for the movement of prohibited substances, can potentially be used for other purposes, in particular the transportation of people, illegal goods, and equipment.
Finally, there is the informational aspect. The topic of drug trafficking is actively exploited in the media, where pro-Kremlin and affiliated platforms use it to discredit European partners, distributing responsibility for the flows among convenient targets, from “Western special services” to “Baltic criminal groups.” As noted by the EMCDDA and Europol, such narratives increase mistrust between EU states, stir up society, and create a false picture of the sources of the threat. This makes the informational exploitation of the drug issue yet another element of hybrid pressure.
Today, the issue of drug trafficking from Afghanistan to Europe is no longer considered a “simple” crime. The northern corridor, in which Russia plays an almost leading role in logistics, is an instrument of Russian hybrid influence.