Global commercial crude oil inventories fell by a record 200 million barrels in April amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. This poses serious risks of a sharp rise in fuel prices ahead of the summer travel season, according to S&P Global Energy.
According to S&P Global Energy estimates, oil inventories in storage declined at an average rate of 6.6 million barrels per day. This massive drawdown occurred despite a significant drop in demand — approximately 5 million barrels per day — the sharpest decline in consumption since the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We are witnessing an unprecedented combination of factors: geopolitical risks are disrupting supplies while demand is already severely weakened. This creates an extremely volatile picture in the market,” Goldman Sachs analysts note.
Experts warn that further escalation of the situation in the Middle East could lead to additional supply disruptions — particularly dangerous ahead of the peak summer season for road and air travel in Europe and the United States. Traders are already pricing in a geopolitical risk premium.
Against this backdrop, market participants expect that Brent crude prices could test new 2026 highs in the coming weeks, unless a rapid de-escalation of the conflict occurs or significant strategic reserves are released.
The Financial Times emphasizes that April’s inventory decline was the largest monthly reduction in the entire history of S&P Global Energy’s observations.