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Orban vs. the West: Hungary’s Road to Moscow

With each passing year of Viktor Orbán’s premiership, Hungary is drifting further from the core values of the European Union and edging closer to a role no longer of partnership, but of internal opposition. What was once a cooperative EU member state is now a self-declared dissident, cloaking its actions in the rhetoric of “national interest” while increasingly aligning with the Kremlin. All the while, Hungary continues to enjoy the full privileges of EU membership—from generous structural funding to veto power over key foreign policy decisions. Yet more and more, that veto has become a blunt instrument of sabotage—used not to protect national sovereignty, but to obstruct joint EU efforts on sanctions, military support for Ukraine, and green policy reforms.

Analysts at the Centre for European Policy point to a deeper trend: Hungary is no longer acting as a European ally. It has positioned itself as a systematic disruptor within the EU, intentionally derailing decisions and fracturing consensus on critical issues. In February 2025, for example, it was Budapest that successfully pushed to remove 27 individuals and entities from the EU’s 16th sanctions package against Russia—including Patriarch Kirill, Russian football clubs Zenit and CSKA, and China’s state aerospace firm CASC. Orbán openly calls for direct negotiations with Moscow and claims that continued support for Ukraine is “destroying Europe.” Meanwhile, his Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártó, blames the EU for “political inertia” and insists that sanctions are “hurting Europe more than Russia.”

The situation escalated in December 2023, when Hungary blocked a €50 billion EU macro-financial aid package for Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused Orbán’s government of leveraging the crisis for political gain—demanding the unfreezing of withheld EU funds to Hungary in return for lifting the veto. Even typically diplomatic European capitals were outraged. French President Emmanuel Macron, in private conversations, reportedly described Orbán as “Putin’s Trojan horse in Brussels.”

Ironically, while Hungary undermines the very foundations of the EU, it remains one of its top financial beneficiaries—especially in green energy. According to the European Court of Auditors, much of this money is funneled through private investment funds into companies closely tied to Orbán’s inner circle. A central figure in this financial network is Orbán’s own son-in-law, István Tiborcz, whose investment funds control major renewable energy projects across the country. Formally independent companies in cities like Budapest, Mogyoród, and Mezőcsát receive zero-interest loans from Hungary’s Development Bank under EU programs such as GINOP. In reality, these companies function as a coordinated cluster with no competition and full political backing.

The European Commission has repeatedly criticized this “Hungarian model” of fund diversion. In 2023, Brussels froze over €6.3 billion in EU funds amid allegations of corruption and conflicts of interest. But after a handful of cosmetic reforms, the Orbán government managed to unlock a portion of those funds. Critics in Brussels described it bluntly: a rollback of rule-of-law standards in exchange for budgetary concessions. Hungary may follow the rules on paper—but in practice, it’s violating the very spirit of the European project.

And it’s not just about money. In 2022, the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen received a €10.6 million loan from Hungary’s MKB Bank—controlled by Orbán’s ally Lőrinc Mészáros. No French bank was willing to back the party, but Hungary stepped in, directly interfering in the democratic process of another EU member state. In response, the European Parliament’s Committee on Civil Liberties called for an urgent mechanism to block foreign financing of EU political parties.

The trend is far from isolated. Investigations by the OCCRP revealed that the Mathias Corvinus Collegium—a foundation tied to Orbán’s government—has been channeling funds to right-wing organizations in Italy, Poland, and Germany. All with the quiet blessing of Budapest.

Hungary has also made headlines for its hardline stance on migration. Since 2015, it has become the EU’s poster child for anti-migrant policy. Orbán routinely frames migration as a “threat to European culture” and paints Hungary as a bulwark against Brussels’ liberalism. In defiance of the European Court of Human Rights, Budapest refused to pay a €200 million fine in 2024 for violations of refugee rights. The concrete border wall with Serbia still stands, a towering symbol of nationalist isolation.

According to researchers at Central European University, Orbán is deliberately shaping the image of a European “dissident”—not just a critic of Brussels, but an ideological alternative. His message is not limited to Hungary; it’s aimed at Eurosceptics, conservatives, and nationalists across the continent. In that sense, Hungary is becoming a hub for those seeking to challenge EU integration from within.

But nowhere is Hungary’s defiance more dangerous than in its stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine—a conflict that remains the defining challenge to European security in this era. While the EU and its Western allies have responded with historic unity, Hungary stands alone. It is the only EU member refusing to supply Ukraine with weapons, and it consistently blocks defense cooperation. In June 2025, Hungary openly vetoed Ukraine’s participation in the European Defence Industrial Strategy.

Worse still, Hungarian intelligence services reportedly maintain contacts with Russia’s GRU. In 2023, Ukraine’s Security Service shared intelligence with NATO detailing the activities of Hungarian influence agents involved in stoking ethnic tensions in western Ukraine.

This raises a fundamental question the EU can no longer avoid: how long can a member state that openly flouts the Union’s values continue to enjoy its benefits—access to funding, decision-making, and strategic influence?

Hungary still enjoys full rights as an EU member. It votes, it receives billions in EU funds, it shapes policy. Yet at the same time, it systematically undermines the Union’s ability to act cohesively. This double game sets a dangerous precedent—and it’s one that other populist regimes across Europe are watching closely.

A reckoning is coming. In 2025, the European Parliament is debating a new initiative—the “Membership Compliance Mechanism”—which would allow the suspension of voting rights and funding for states that repeatedly violate the rules and values of the EU. The proposal already has backing from France, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the Baltic countries. It hasn’t yet passed—but the mere fact of its creation is a direct response to Orbán’s Hungary.

The real question is no longer whether Hungary can remain in the EU under current terms. The question now is whether the European Union itself has the strength and will to defend its core principles from being eroded from within. Because how the EU responds to Orbán won’t just define Hungary’s place in Europe—it may well define Europe’s future.