From 1 April to 15 October 2026, at least 52 incidents linked by authorities and security services to hybrid aggression by Russia and its ally Belarus were recorded in EU countries, as well as in the United Kingdom, Norway and Moldova. This is according to an investigation by journalists from European media outlets under the auspices of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU).
The study focused on physical actions — airspace violations, sabotage, arson, drone attacks, the instrumentalization of migration, and provocations on borders. Cyberattacks and information operations were not included in the count. Of the 52 cases, officials linked 48 to Russia (or described them as a possible part of its operations), and another four to Belarus. Journalists from 17 European public broadcasters, working within the Eurovision News Spotlight network, created an interactive map of the incidents based on these data.
The highest number of incidents occurred in Poland — at least nine. These included violations of airspace by Russian aircraft, spy scandals, attacks on defence enterprises, and the arson of a Starlink station. An undercover correspondent from Vot Tak received an offer from a recruiter to set fire to or blow up the plant of the Flytronic drone manufacturer. In addition, Poland was the only EU country where the murder of a Kremlin opponent — émigré artist Semyon Skrepetsky — took place during this period. Separately, Vot Tak counted at least 250 attempts to illegally cross the Polish border from Belarus.
Six incidents were recorded in Romania and Latvia each, and five in Lithuania (including mass attempts to breach the border). In Germany, cases involving incendiary devices in Munich and near Leipzig airport (including the discovery of a drone carrying explosives), as well as the detection of a drone near the Bundeswehr air base in Wunstorf, were noted. Russian combat aircraft violated Finnish airspace twice. In Moldova, drones launched by Russia fell and exploded. In Bulgaria, arson attacks on Starlink stations and an ammunition plant were recorded. Drone attacks on cargo ships were noted in the Black Sea off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria.
According to the authors, Belarus’s role primarily manifested itself in pressure on EU borders using migrants, surveillance of émigré opposition figures, and the arrival of weather balloons that disrupted operations at Vilnius airport.
Moscow and Minsk, without declaring war, are testing Europe’s resilience day after day. The incidents occurred not only on NATO’s eastern borders but also in western countries. The link between each episode and Russia or Belarus has not always been definitively established — the authors relied on open sources and official statements.
