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Slovenia Narrowly Avoids a Return to Populist Rule

Slovenia’s tense parliamentary elections, held on 22 March, have concluded. According to preliminary official data from the State Electoral Commission (with 99.85% of votes counted), victory went to the centre-left Freedom Movement (Gibanje Svoboda) of Prime Minister Robert Golob, with 28.62% of the vote and 29 seats in the 90-seat National Assembly.

In second place, by a very narrow margin, is the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) of Janez Janša — 27.95% and 28 seats.

Third place goes to the coalition NSi + SLS + FOKUS — approximately 9.29% and 9 seats.

The remaining results are as follows:

Social Democrats (SD) — 6.70% → 6 seats

Democrats (Anže Logar) — 6.70% → 6 seats

Left + Vesna coalition — 5.58% → 5 seats

Resni.ca — 5.53% → 5 seats

All other parties failed to clear the 4% threshold.

Neither side secured an absolute majority (46 seats) needed to form a government independently. Even accounting for potential allies, both major blocs fall short of that mark, making the smaller parties the kingmakers in the upcoming coalition negotiations.

Prime Minister Robert Golob has already declared his party’s victory, telling supporters: “We have earned the people’s trust — now we can move forward under a free sun. We will do everything to secure a better future for all, but we will not bargain over the country’s sovereignty.”

Janez Janša and the SDS have yet to formally concede defeat and have hinted at possible doubts regarding the finality of the results, though the gap remains razor-thin.

Voter turnout stood at approximately 69.3% — notably higher than in some previous elections.

The coming days and weeks in Ljubljana will be dominated by intensive coalition consultations. Analysts consider the most likely scenarios to be either a continuation of the centre-left coalition (Svoboda + SD + possibly Left/Vesna + Democrats), or an attempt by the right-wing bloc (SDS + NSi/SLS/FOKUS + Democrats) to assemble an alternative majority.

Final official results are expected within the coming days, once all protocols have been verified.