In late February 2026, the global energy market found itself on the brink of a new crisis. Following US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran responded asymmetrically, effectively restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key maritime corridors of the global economy. Already in the first days of the conflict, oil and gas prices began to rise sharply, and international supply chains faced serious disruptions. For the UK, one of the most globalized economies in the world, the consequences of this crisis could be significant.
The Strait of Hormuz is located between Iran and Oman and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. Its geographic parameters make it simultaneously the most vital and most vulnerable section of global maritime infrastructure. Despite its limited size, the strait can accommodate the world’s largest oil tankers. This has made it a central link in global energy logistics. The strait’s northern shore is controlled by Iran, giving Tehran a strategic advantage, as it can, if necessary, block shipping with naval mines, missile systems, and warships.
This geography makes the Strait of Hormuz a classic maritime “choke point,” a bottleneck in shipping routes whose stability determines the functioning of global energy trade. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for about one-fifth of global consumption. Additionally, approximately 20% of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passes through this route. The major energy exporters whose supplies pass through the strait are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran. For some of them, this is virtually the only route for delivering oil and gas to global markets. A complete blockade could result in a loss of up to 15-20 million barrels of oil per day, inevitably leading to a sharp spiking price. Financial markets react quickly to such threats. Analysts warn that a prolonged closure of the strait could push the price of oil above $100 per barrel.
On February 28, 2026, following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, Tehran declared the Persian Gulf unsafe for navigation and effectively restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade of the strait has become a strategic tool for Iran. Firstly, it deals a blow to the global economy and forces Western states to take its interests into account. Secondly, it demonstrates Iran’s ability to control the planet’s most vital energy route. For Tehran, this is one of the few effective levers of influence over world powers amid economic sanctions that have lasted for over 40 years.
The consequences of the crisis became noticeable within the first days. Brent crude prices rose by approximately 15%, reaching $84 per barrel. At the same time, serious problems arose in the global gas market. Qatar, one of the largest suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), was forced to halt production after direct strikes on its energy infrastructure. On March 2, 2026, Iranian drones and missiles attacked the energy facilities of Qatar Energy, which accounts for approximately 20% of the global LNG trade. As a result of the strikes, the country’s authorities were forced to completely halt LNG production and exports for an indefinite period.
The closure of Qatar’s LNG plants had an immediate impact on global markets. Gas prices in Europe and Asia rose sharply, and many countries began urgently seeking alternative fuel sources.
Although the UK directly imports relatively small volumes of oil from the Persian Gulf, it remains highly dependent on global energy markets. The British economy is deeply integrated into global trade, as the country imports a significant portion of its food, gas, and industrial resources. Experts are already predicting rising energy bills. Analysts estimate that the average annual bill for British households could increase by approximately £160 to over £1,800 per year. Furthermore, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is sharply increasing transportation costs and ship insurance costs, which directly impacts the prices of imported goods. Since the crisis began, the cost of insuring ships transiting the Strait has increased approximately 12-fold, from 0.25% to approximately 3% of the vessel’s value, representing an additional hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars per voyage for a large tanker.
At the same time, shipping companies began introducing so-called “war surcharges” on shipping. For example, some container carriers imposed an additional charge of $2,000-$3,000 per 40-foot container, and up to $4,000 for refrigerated containers. As a result, industry brokers estimate that the overall cost of sea freight on routes connected to the Persian Gulf has increased by 40-60% in just a few days, with costs per voyage potentially increasing by $200,000-$500,000. These additional costs are almost always passed on to end customers, leading to higher prices for imported goods in Europe and, in particular, the UK.
The Strait of Hormuz is strategically important not only economically but also militarily and politically. The United Kingdom has traditionally been involved in ensuring the security of shipping in the Persian Gulf and maintains a naval base in Bahrain. In the event of a prolonged blockade, London will be forced to strengthen the Royal Navy’s presence in the region, participate in tanker escort operations, and clear maritime routes of mines. Such operations have been conducted in the Persian Gulf in the past, for example, during the “tanker war” of the 1980s. There is also the risk of direct military conflict, which would require colossal budget expenditures and carry the risk of losses.
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz presents the British government with a number of interrelated challenges. First and foremost, it is the need to ensure the country’s energy security amid global market instability. Even short-term disruptions in oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf region could cause a sharp rise in fuel and electricity prices, directly impacting the economy and living standards. At the same time, London is forced to consider its alliance commitments to the United States and other NATO partners, who view the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic priority. Supporting allied military and diplomatic initiatives may require the UK to play a more active role in operations to ensure freedom of navigation and protect trade routes. However, such a stance inevitably carries the risk of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
The domestic socioeconomic situation is adding to the pressure. Rising global energy prices are increasing the costs of British households and businesses, heightening inflationary pressure, and fueling public discontent. With the cost of electricity and fuel remaining one of the most sensitive issues for British society, any further tariff increases could lead to heightened political tensions and increased criticism of the government. As a result, the crisis surrounding the narrow strait at the other end of Eurasia is becoming both a foreign policy issue and a domestic sociopolitical challenge for London.
Amid growing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, experts point to several options that could help the UK mitigate the impact of the crisis. One key solution is being considered: further diversification of energy sources. London could increase its purchases of natural gas from Norway, Europe’s largest fuel supplier, and expand its imports of liquefied natural gas from the US and other countries. At the same time, British authorities could accelerate the development of renewable energy projects, which would reduce the country’s dependence on unstable external markets. In the short term, strategic oil and gas reserves, created specifically for energy crises, could play a significant role. Their use could partially offset potential supply disruptions and stabilize the domestic market. At the same time, the UK retains the ability to utilize diplomatic mechanisms by participating in international negotiations and initiatives to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East. Along with political instruments, a strengthened military presence in the region is also being discussed.
The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated how vulnerable the global energy system remains. A narrow maritime corridor just a few dozen kilometers wide can impact the economies of entire continents. For the UK, the longer instability in the Persian Gulf continues, the more severe its consequences will be, from rising fuel prices to a shift in the global geopolitical balance.