The autumn of 2025 has drawn the attention of the international community to two major military events. The first was a parade in Beijing, showcasing China’s rapidly advancing military capabilities, and the second is the large-scale Zapad-2025 exercises currently taking place in Belarus with the participation of Russian armed forces. While the former highlighted China’s emergence as a regional military leader, the latter has become both a demonstration of power and a source of heightened geopolitical tension along Europe’s eastern frontier.
Officially, Zapad-2025 is presented as a defensive exercise, aimed at testing the joint capabilities of the Russia-Belarus Union State. Yet, against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, sanctions pressure, and hybrid confrontation with the West, the unease among Russia’s and Belarus’s neighbors is hardly surprising.
According to official figures, around 13,000 troops are taking part in the exercises—a significantly smaller number than in previous iterations. Still, experts suggest the figures may be understated and not reflect the full extent of forces involved. The drills reportedly include nuclear planning elements and tests of the Oreshnik missile system—components that raise additional concerns.
Although the training grounds were deliberately placed deeper inside Belarus to ease tensions, incidents have already occurred. In early September, Poland accused Russian drones of violating its airspace. Warsaw responded by closing border crossings with Belarus, while Lithuania and Latvia tightened controls along their frontiers.
Neighboring states perceive the exercises as troubling. For Poland and the Baltic countries, Zapad-2025 represents less a test of defensive readiness than a deliberate show of force, with potential for provocations or unintended military incidents. Ukrainian analysts argue that the exercises allow Russia and Belarus to rehearse scenarios of penetrating NATO’s air defense systems and testing new warfare methods involving drones and surveillance technologies. The risk of accidental escalation remains high.
At the same time, a different line of tension is unfolding in Moldova, where authorities led by President Maia Sandu accuse Russia and Belarus of running a hybrid campaign of political interference. According to Moldovan officials, this includes disinformation efforts, subversive media operations, and financing of pro-Russian groups through diaspora networks. A Eurojust-led investigation, involving Romania, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, uncovered a network possibly linked to former Moldovan intelligence officials, facing charges ranging from leaking classified information to abuse of office.
Taken together, these developments point to a systemic interplay between overt military demonstrations and covert influence operations. On the one hand, there are exercises and border provocations; on the other, there are information campaigns, electoral interference, and efforts to undermine trust in public institutions. This fusion of conventional and hybrid tactics is precisely what raises alarm among Europe’s eastern neighbors.
The international response reflects the seriousness of the threat. NATO has reinforced its eastern flank with new air defense deployments and expanded intelligence-sharing. EU states are debating counter-disinformation strategies, stricter oversight of political financing, and mechanisms to safeguard electoral transparency.
Despite these measures, uncertainty persists. Belarus has formally invited observers to the exercises, presenting this as a gesture of transparency. Yet the combination of military activity with hybrid operations leaves the situation volatile. Even an accidental incident could trigger a crisis with consequences far exceeding the scope of the exercises themselves.
The risks extend beyond military escalation to include rising defense expenditures at the expense of social budgets, as well as intensified espionage and information warfare. Borderland countries are particularly exposed, facing simultaneous pressures from migration flows, destabilization attempts, and military shows of force.
Possible scenarios range from deeper NATO-EU defense integration—particularly in air defense, intelligence, and cyber security—to new rounds of sanctions against Russia and Belarus. At the same time, hybrid attacks, including electoral interference, are likely to persist.
The key lesson of the current crisis is that the line between demonstrating defensive capabilities and posing an offensive threat has become increasingly blurred. Europe must strengthen its military posture while simultaneously building resilience against hybrid tactics. That requires enhanced monitoring and intelligence, resistance to disinformation, transparent electoral processes, and preventive diplomatic engagement.
Zapad-2025 thus symbolizes a new reality: European security can no longer be defined solely in military terms. It now spans cyberspace, the information domain, and political institutions. Only a comprehensive response to these multi-layered threats can prevent escalation and preserve stability on the continent.